Craig Pennington
Craig Pennington
biggest draws entering people period rates run start
The refineries are entering their biggest period of maintenance. People will start to look for the refinery run rates and look for bigger-than-expected draws on gasoline.
bit cold focus start starting time warm weather winter
We had a warm start to the winter but now it is starting to look a bit ugly. The focus will be on cold weather for some time to come.
barrels capacity gulf million missing production spare
There isn't the spare capacity to make up for the missing production in the Gulf of Mexico. OPEC used to have 4 to 5 million barrels of spare capacity. That's down to about 1.5 million barrels a day this year.
caused changes disruption looking people product
People are looking to product spec changes and the disruption that will be caused by product spec changes.
collapse harsh market normal oil supply unseen
If we get a normal winter, we'll probably have enough inventories, but if we get a very harsh winter, inventories could collapse to unseen levels. The oil market would be very jittery with any supply disruptions.
gasoline people watch
People will still watch gasoline because of maintenance and subsequent specification changes.
commodity driven fact funds market matter mostly oil pension prices spare supported
The oil market has been driven by speculators, by hedge funds, by pension funds and by commodity indexes, but the fact of the matter is that it's mostly been driven by the fundamentals. Prices are supported by the fact that there is no spare capacity.
based couple days establish past price view weather
The past couple of days have been based on one entity's view of what January's weather will look like and that hasn't been enough to establish a price trend.
across areas build built expectation inventory outside product risk surprise
The expectation for an inventory build is built in across all the product areas with an outside risk of a surprise on heating oil.