Dana Johnson
Dana Johnson
Dana Johnsonis an American writer and Associate Professor at the University of Southern California. Honors include the Flannery O'Connor Award for Short Fiction, and being named a nominee for the Hurston/Wright Legacy Award. Her writing has appeared in Callaloo, The Iowa Review, and elsewhere...
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The affordability of light vehicles has been quite stable over the past ten quarters. Family incomes have been rising faster than vehicle prices, but higher interest rates have increased the cost of financing a new car.
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I expected our index to tick lower in March, as the effects from the Super Bowl and mild winter weather faded. Looking ahead, our index probably will settle into a lower range, as the local economy struggles to overcome restructuring in the auto sector, higher interest rates, and elevated gasoline prices.
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I think the concern that was motivating the Fed (to lower interest rates ) is that it's going to shift to more Western hemisphere trade partners. I think the risk is it's going to broaden and deepen.
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Affordability has deteriorated over the past year because consumers are buying more expensive cars, financing a larger portion of those purchases and paying higher interest rates on car loans.
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They view it that that is more likely to keep the overall economy performing in a relatively smooth way so that the seasonality - if there is any - in credit demands doesn't cause large swings in interest rates, which in turn cause activity to turn on and turn off in an erratic way.
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I don't think one 50 basis point move (by the Fed) is likely to be enough. It's going to be very hard for the stock market to move ahead. Profit margins are not going to be expanding. There's going to be nothing to offset the higher interest rates.
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People are awfully comfortable with the outlook for stable Fed (policy), so bonds trade with the stock market.
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These are job cuts, but they're happening in a rather humane way compared to what could have occurred. They were going to happen anyway. Now those people have more of a cushion with which to make adjustments in their lives.
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I think it's important to recognize that inflation is where the Fed wants (it) to be. They don't want to overshoot. I think they will pause real soon.
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Campus climate is getting better, but it can always be improved,
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The Fed is more willing to balance risks in favor of growth than it was two years ago. They really don't want to be accused of anti-growth. They want to be seen as anti-inflation, and I don't think in that light they wanted to be seen as moving ahead of inflation reports that have not shown any acceleration.
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A reasonable estimate is that an infant loses 1-2 IQ points per month and sustains predictable losses in growth as well as motor and language development between 4 and 24 months of age while living in an institutional environment.
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Everybody's seeing the loss of the income and people are spending cautiously wherever they can.
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So far, I am encouraged to see how well the regional economy has weathered the job and income losses centered in the auto manufacturing sector. Mild winter weather and the Super Bowl no doubt helped to support the economy early in 2006. As those effects fade, I would expect to see some fall off in activity over the next several months.