Daniel Katzive
Daniel Katzive
data dollar environment heading likely market prevent remain strong timing
Data has been strong enough heading into year-end to prevent market participants from making strong conclusions on the likely timing of the end of the Fed's tightening cycle, and in this environment the dollar is likely to remain well-supported for now.
aversion bit crude ease equity global helped markets moderate prices risk tone
The better tone in global equity markets as crude prices moderate a bit has helped ease risk aversion concerns, to the dollar's benefit.
amount continue core dollar fair harder interest market markets move rate watching yields
The FX market is watching interest rate markets and short- end yields have come off and that's because core CPI was tame. For the dollar to continue to do well, you need interest rate expectations to continue to move in its favor, and with a fair amount of tightening already priced in, that's getting harder and harder.
backdrop dollar global good growth needs remain
The dollar needs a good global growth backdrop to remain well supported.
continued continuing currency dollar equity interest market rate respond shift tone work
The dollar is continuing to respond to the new shift in tone from the FOMC yesterday, and that has continued to work through, not only on the currency market but also on the interest rate and equity markets.
action against assumed behavior break changed cover dollar dominate exclusion factors forced highs last level likely market near price week year
I think the break of the big level last week ... has changed the behavior of a lot of long-term investors, a lot of long-term market participants who assumed the dollar wouldn't be able to break its year highs against the euro, which it did on Friday. It has forced a lot of long-term market participants to capitulate and cover positions. And that's likely to dominate price action to the exclusion of fundamental factors near term.
begins coming data dollar economics likely renewed slow team
If US data begins to slow markedly in the coming weeks, as our US economics team suspects, the dollar is likely come under renewed pressure.
boost borrowers costs course currency funding lowest yield
It's got to be the yen. That is the currency with the lowest yield and borrowers can be comfortable that the BOJ is not going to significantly boost their funding costs over the course of the year.
buy currency good short
Short term, it is good to buy the currency on dips.
against below dollar michigan pull touch
Michigan was a touch below consensus. The dollar may pull back a little, especially against interest-rate-sensitive currencies.