David Blitzer
David Blitzer
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Over long periods of time, stock markets generally go up. Japan was obviously an exception if you chose the wrong 12 years.
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The stock market suggests that there is fantastic bullish sentiment -- everybody feels good, looks good, thinks wonderfully of this economy, and indeed it is very difficult to say anything wrong about this economy,
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The stock market reaction, if they cut a quarter point, probably will be as much a yawn as anything else. If the Fed would go for half a point, which is within the realm of possibility, I think it would get a positive reaction.
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Clearly, if we take a stock out at $2, and 6 months later it's trading at $10, we look silly and people who invest in the index will say, 'I missed a five-times gain'. But in talking to people who run index funds, the vast majority of managers say take the low-priced stocks out,
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It's a sign that this is a company that represents the economy, represents the stock market and should be a member of the S&P 500.
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I think we have to get through the earnings until we see a sustained advance.
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Large-cap managers have been chasing the performance of mid- and small-cap stocks, and investors may not be aware of this.
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This was one time hit from oil prices. We knew oil had to go up from an unsustainably low number late last year.
hit knew last late low number oil time
This was one time hit from oil prices, ... We knew oil had to go up from an unsustainably low number late last year.
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I think it's a fairly narrow change. I don't think it's anything to worry about.
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The problem is that instead of having one way to calculate corporate earnings that everybody understands, we have two or three methods. And the one that most people use, there is virtually no agreement at all about what it means.
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Whether you call it consolidation, rationalization or getting your competitor to go out of business, it's a way for these companies to effectively deal with the collapse of commodity prices. In virtually every sector involved in something that comes out of the ground, we've seen consolidation.
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From their point of view, there's no inflation danger. The main risk is to slow growth, and they should keep cutting rates.
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For the vast majority of Americans, their home is their largest and most valuable asset, and in a period of rising housing prices and increased concerns about a possible housing bubble, reliable information on their biggest asset is extremely important.