David Joy
David Joy
affected costs either fact fought higher impacts interest markets offset rates result rise
The fact that long-term rates didn't rise in some sense offset some of the impacts of the higher costs of energy. They fought to a draw, and as a result the markets weren't affected by either interest rates or energy.
falling inflation next pressure prices reason rising year
Part of the reason we see inflation rising next year is the dollar. Clearly, there is upward pressure on prices because of the falling dollar.
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In the early 1990s, we were coming out of a recession and you typically expect a burst of tech spending. That's what we witnessed last year. That pattern is quite analogous.
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Clearly the far more important factor for tech is the relative strength of the economy. It trumps the dollar situation. But if the dollar improves, it does take the bloom off the rose for some of the sales numbers that companies have reported.
consumer fed financial mounting perception pressures raising stocks vulnerable
Stocks in the financial and consumer discretionary sectors look particularly vulnerable as the perception is that inflationary pressures will keep mounting and the Fed is not done with raising rates.
They will probably have to make some estimations.
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The labor market is important to the Fed under any circumstances. Once you get rising wage pressure that's when inflation gets intractable.
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There seems to be a wide disconnect between the headline growth numbers and individual perception about the relative health of the economy.
ahead immediate itself market optimistic rate sideways
The market got a little optimistic and ahead of itself anticipating the end of rate hikes. The market will churn sideways for the immediate future.
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The evidence of gathering economic strength is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
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The market is going to sort of tread water until we hear the results of the (Fed) meeting and what the Fed has to say about their decision. That's the 500-pound gorilla of events next week.
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The Fed has been the big question mark for the market. I'm afraid the Fed is not going to get out of the way any time soon.
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Both candidates seem to be proposing roughly equal deficits over time. Both plan on cutting it in half but doing it by growing the economy as opposed to lowering the dollar amount.
america corporate last looks though
They profited from that last year, and it looks as though corporate America is positioned to do the same or more this year.