David Lereah
David Lereah
David Lereah is the President of Reecon Advisors, Inc., a real estate advisory and information company located in the Washington, DC area. Lereah was previously an Executive Vice President at Move, Inc. and before that, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors. Lereah served as the NAR's spokesman on economic forecasts, interest rates, home sales, mortgage rates, as well as other policy issues and trends affecting the United States real estate industry. Lereah was also the Chief Economist for...
additional april august close easing four level months pace project record sales since sixth strongest three total toward
Since April we've experienced three out of the four strongest months on record for existing-home sales, and August was the sixth highest. We're at a more sustainable level now, but long-term there should be some additional easing toward the end of the year. In fact, the August sales pace is close to what we project for total sales this year.
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Since 1971 there have been only five months when mortgage interest rates were lower, and all of those have been during the last year and a half.
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Modeling a relationship between economic and commercial market indicators, as well as market trends and sentiment, will provide us with a new tool in assessing market behavior in the major commercial real estate sectors. It is being designed as an index to provide early signals of turning points between expansions and slowdowns in commercial real estate activity.
brakes hot tapping
The slowdown amounts to a tapping of the brakes on a hot market.
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Our definition of second homes has changed with the buyer shift toward investment property, ... In examining Census data to determine the number of investment units, we see that second homes are a much larger share than the conventional mind-set of them being mostly vacation homes.
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A lot of demand has been met over the last five years, and a modest rise in mortgage interest rates is causing some market cooling.
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Although mortgage interest rates have risen in the last month, housing affordability conditions remain favorable.
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You're going to be taking away from Middle America. Everyone, whether you use the mortgage interest deduction or not, the value goes down. You've just reduced the retirement nest egg for everyone.
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This is the biggest annual home-price increase in any metro area on record.
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A new record is a bit unexpected, but so is the performance of mortgage interest rates which have been lower than forecast. When we look at recent job gains, we see all the positive factors coming together to coincide with a powerful demographic demand for housing.
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In the handful of areas with price declines, none had previously experienced rapid price growth. In fact, they were all lower-cost areas experiencing one or both of the conditions necessary for temporary price softness -- local economic weakness, mainly in jobs, or a large supply of homes available in the local market.
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Not only have mortgage interest rates declined, but an expected rise in the second half of the year will be slower than in earlier projections. As a result, we now expect to set records for both existing- and new-home sales this year.
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The nearby regions picked up a great deal of activity very quickly.
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It's a simple matter of supply and demand. We continue to have more home buyers than sellers in most of the country, which results in tight housing inventories and higher rates of home price appreciation.