David Resler
David Resler
additional contrary inflation policy threat
This is not a policy of indifference. This is a policy of additional restraint. Contrary to what they say, they think the inflation threat is graver than the threat to growth.
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It's the early signs of some cooling in this super-heated market. Fewer people qualify for loans and sales at these prices.
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The Fed is without question, especially in light of the behavior of the stock market, focused with laser-like scrutiny on consumer confidence.
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The last month of the quarter tells you a great deal about how much momentum there was in spending, and it doesn't look to me like there was that much.
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A reading as high as 58.5 is consistent with an economy that is growing at a healthy pace. We see encouraging signs of moderating prices, although the vast majority of purchasing managers seem to be facing higher prices.
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Economic conditions look pretty grave right now. Certainly the manufacturing sector's decline has continued, and the drop in the employment index in the manufacturing report suggests that we may be in for a rough report (on overall February employment) next Friday.
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This is the kind of thing that happens with economic data. In any given month, you have random variations in price trends Those random changes tend to offset each other.
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All of this, in terms of the FOMC becoming data dependent, comes as no surprise, and the new Fed chairman has an open agenda from which to work.
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Very large swings in seasonal employment during and after the holidays typify the job market at this time of the year.
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Today's numbers are pointing toward a considerable improvement in manufacturing activity in the second half of the year. Inventories are so lean that I can't imagine businesses have enough left to satisfy much of the demand. There's got to be more production.
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We ended last year with a good bit more momentum on the capital investment front than we thought. We have an optimistic view about this year as a whole.
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Uncertainty about the pricing environment will keep inventory investment more disappointing than some other economists expect.
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We're going to get some extra employment growth as people displaced by the hurricanes find their way back into the job market, and that's likely to continue in the first few months of this year.
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We're at the stage of the business cycle where statisticians can't keep up with rapidly changing developments, especially new businesses. That's where the greatest potential for an upward revision is.