David Trone
David Trone
global guys half outside profits wherever
These guys are global companies. Goldman has half its revenues come from outside the U.S.. They can find profits wherever they need to.
coming position power recent
Fink is coming from a position of power because of his recent success.
negative product results strength third
On a year-over-year basis, Lehman's results are outstanding, while the negative sequential comparisons are a product of the strength of the 2005 third quarter.
advisory easily estimate firm highest million move places prior quarter revenue
Our estimate of $340 million in advisory revenue easily places the quarter as the highest for the firm post-bubble, and should move 2005 advisory revenues about 28% over the prior year.
assume double firm likely revenue
It's not likely a firm would double its revenue in a sequential comparison. One should assume that some of that's proprietary trading.
deal earnings estimate few impact next seems ultimate
Financially, the deal seems to be of little impact. We estimate ultimate earnings impact as flattish for Merrill over the next few years.
quarter quarters results time
This is the first quarter in a long time where you will see year-over-year comparisons that are negative. And we'll probably see results for most of the quarters in 2005 being down on a year-over-year basis.
billions close dollars earned last negative reasonable record several track trading
Its track record is outstanding, they've earned tens of billions of dollars over the last several years and they've never come close to having a negative trading line. I'd say that's reasonable risk-reward.
assets discover improve improved last needs value
It's in last place with no real assets to improve their position. Discover desperately needs to have an improved value proposition for the cardholders. That's where it all begins.
capital game gives risk
It gives them a way to get in the game without having to put capital at risk.
buzz capital effective exploring few fuller large last looking means media normal reports
Full-service firms are awash in capital and looking at means of effective deployment. Over the last few weeks, media reports have been fuller than normal with buzz of these firms exploring large deals.
financial incentives pushing time
The transaction makes a lot of sense strategically at a time when U.S. regulators are frowning upon financial incentives to brokers for pushing in-house funds.
balance billion bought early lately pace per quarter sheet since
Merrill has consistently bought back about $1 billion per quarter since early 2004, a pace that lately has been insufficient in offsetting balance sheet growth.
although asset banks consumer expensive finance given likely management
Asset management acquisitions are safer, in our view, given the predictability of earnings, although they will likely be more expensive than banks or consumer finance companies.