David Trone
David Trone
billions close dollars earned last negative reasonable record several track trading
Its track record is outstanding, they've earned tens of billions of dollars over the last several years and they've never come close to having a negative trading line. I'd say that's reasonable risk-reward.
global guys half outside profits wherever
These guys are global companies. Goldman has half its revenues come from outside the U.S.. They can find profits wherever they need to.
coming position power recent
Fink is coming from a position of power because of his recent success.
negative product results strength third
On a year-over-year basis, Lehman's results are outstanding, while the negative sequential comparisons are a product of the strength of the 2005 third quarter.
advisory easily estimate firm highest million move places prior quarter revenue
Our estimate of $340 million in advisory revenue easily places the quarter as the highest for the firm post-bubble, and should move 2005 advisory revenues about 28% over the prior year.
assume double firm likely revenue
It's not likely a firm would double its revenue in a sequential comparison. One should assume that some of that's proprietary trading.
deal earnings estimate few impact next seems ultimate
Financially, the deal seems to be of little impact. We estimate ultimate earnings impact as flattish for Merrill over the next few years.
quarter quarters results time
This is the first quarter in a long time where you will see year-over-year comparisons that are negative. And we'll probably see results for most of the quarters in 2005 being down on a year-over-year basis.
begins both company core effect expenses partial quarter realize result revenue rise
The partial quarter effect of the two acquisitions should result in a 17% sequential revenue lift, while core expenses (excluding any one-time restructuring charges) should rise about 23%, as the company only begins to realize both expense and revenue synergies.
thinking
When they say more than half, we're thinking most.
low relatively risk
There are substantial synergies and relatively low integration risk.
case core increases quite rate
The rate increases have been going on for quite some time, and it really hasn't had an impact. And in the case of Goldman, you still have sustainable core revenues up very strong.