Derek Halpenny
Derek Halpenny
becoming data date market push
The data are becoming ever more important. There's no justification in the data to date to warrant the market to push aggressively for 5.25 percent.
changed knows market repeated shift timing
Fukui has said nothing new, he has pretty much repeated what the market already knows and hasn't changed the timing of a shift on quantitative easing.
argue bit certainly convinced cut further interest market monetary possibly rate seen since stability
We could argue possibly that we've seen a little bit of stability since we've had the interest rate cut out of the way. Certainly the market is not as convinced over the need for further substantial monetary tightening in the UK.
conclusion fed figures impact katrina looking market move near net next term therefore weak
The market has already come to the conclusion that the medium-term impact of Katrina will be negligible if not net positive, therefore weak figures in the near term won't have any bearing. The market is now looking for a Fed move next week.
beginning beyond easing interest market potential rate shift step terms
The market is now beginning to look beyond the potential first step in terms of a shift from quantitative easing to interest rate targeting.
beginning below bit concern fact gone market playing push time trying
I think the fact that every time we've gone below 114 yen (on dollar/yen) we've bounced back higher, is beginning to become a bit of a concern for those playing the short-term market by trying to push dollar-yen lower.
ahead confident factor federal following looked market moves next outlook previous seems supportive view
Following previous moves by the Federal Reserve, the market pretty much immediately looked ahead and had a confident view on the interest-rate outlook for the next two meetings. That's been a supportive factor for the dollar. Now it seems to be different.
bank consensus definitely given japan low market past remains tested three war weeks
The consensus is that we are definitely going to war and it's probably two to three weeks away, no more than that. We can take it as a given that the Bank of Japan is in the market at or around 117, so that the low we have tested in the past at 116.80 remains intact.
changed dollar obviously overall relatively selling sentiment strength
Overall sentiment hasn't changed significantly, obviously we've had a reversal and the selling has ceased temporarily... But the strength of the dollar has been relatively modest.
gasoline negative oil prices rising
Rising oil and gasoline prices are negative for the dollar.
event foreign guaranteed investors japanese nearly pick purchases yield
Yield is still very important for Japanese investors and it's nearly a guaranteed event that we'll see a pick up in purchases of foreign assets.
buying interest obvious rate
There is no more obvious way to play interest rate differentials than buying dollar/yen.
beyond easing given government interest maintain moving rate rhetoric seen zero
Given the rhetoric we've seen from the government today, the pressure, beyond moving away from quantitative easing will be very, very much on the BOJ to maintain a zero interest rate structure.
continuity dollar interest means number objective rate stress
His number one objective will be to stress continuity. Continuity means more interest rate increases, so that means the dollar can keep going up.