Diane Swonk
Diane Swonk
bias fed high move rising risk sooner view
I view the risk as very high that the Fed shifts its bias to tighten (interest rates) sooner than we had forecast. The risk is rising that they will move sooner.
demand fed inflation looking oil policy subtle
They're now looking at the demand trade-off on oil prices, not just the inflation trade-off, which will make Fed policy much more complicated. It's a subtle but important change.
cameras digital dvd hot screen
The DVD burner, plasma screen TVs, digital cameras are the hot picks.
bit builders everybody hope human money nature near relative time
By the end of the year, there will be some builders with some overhang of construction relative to demand, ... Now's the time when you'd hope everybody cools off a bit and moderates their building, but that's not human nature -- and it's not the way for homebuilders to make money in the near term.
anyone consumer darn hard losing sleep wrong
It's hard to kill this darn consumer, isn't it? Anyone who is losing sleep over the consumer is losing sleep over the wrong thing.
financial
If they see more instability in financial markets, they will take it lower.
bring build consensus evolution inflation policy smooth
He'd like to bring in inflation targeting. (But) he must build consensus to do so and he doesn't have consensus now. I think he's going to make a smooth transition, but it's going to be an evolution in policy change.
closer employment full percent view
My own view is that full employment is closer to 4 to 4.5 percent -- probably closer to the 4.5 percent range.
bad economic fed financial july months wants whether
The Fed wants to see whether this July data, this bad economic data, was an aberration, and two months will make it clearer. If they see more instability in financial markets, they will take it lower.
bit coming fed fireworks friday news seen washington
After the fireworks we've seen coming out of Washington on Friday and Monday, I think the Fed would like to be the least bit of news this week.
driving early economic growth less means played playing role twice
Even more than the early 1990s, this is a jobless recovery. Productivity growth is playing twice the role it played in the early 1990s in driving economic gains, which means less payrolls growth.
bottom line waiting
The bottom line is, you're going to be waiting in more lines.
fed guess move sidelines until
It's my guess the Fed will probably move to the sidelines until at least November,
katrina
Once they got the uncertainty of Katrina out of the way they just got back to their boilerplate statement,