Douglas Porter
Douglas Porter
bunny faster forecasts parity rabbits
Forecasts of parity (with the U.S. dollar) are multiplying faster than bunny rabbits in May.
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I think it will improve liquidity and the attractiveness of owning Canadian financial assets, although I don't see it as a watershed event for Canadian financial markets.
december far posted prior rebound solid weakness
Manufacturing posted a solid rebound in December from weakness the prior month, but it is far from out of the woods.
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I suspect there will be enough positive news in other areas to persuade consumers there is a light at the end of the tunnel and that the economy is moving to better times, but it will be a gradual process, and confidence may be flat in the next couple of months.
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While the economic data have been all over the place in recent weeks, there are no obvious signs that the economy is cracking in the face of record energy prices. Indeed, the export and production data have been surprisingly perky.
backup becoming bit buying concerned confidence consumers explained latest less mortgage news numbers ongoing perhaps sales slightly weakness
While it's a bit of a surprise, the slightly downbeat news on confidence can be explained by the ongoing weakness in employment, and perhaps consumers are a little concerned about the backup in mortgage rates. But while they're becoming less confident, they're still buying -- the latest sales numbers still look good.
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Usually the incentives and the ways builders are allowed to design subdivisions to allow for extra densities sooner or later reduces that cost by a lot.
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Given that there are virtually no other signs that Canadian spending suddenly weakened in February, this sharp drop in imports is likely to prove to be a fluke.
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These solid results suggest that the economy actually had a fair bit of momentum heading into 2003.
current driven figures happened heading momentum numbers previous quarter spending start took
The thing about the quarterly figures is they're more driven by what took place at the end of the previous quarter and the start of the current quarter than what happened at end of the current quarter. These numbers tell us spending had a little more momentum heading into 2003 than the quarterly figures would indicate.
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The results likely fully please almost no one.
labor market points remains tight
This points out that the labor market remains as tight as ever.
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There really can be little debate now that Western Canada is already experiencing the closest thing to full employment in over three decades, with the jobless rate west of Ontario just barely above four per cent.
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The renewed and rapid rise in the Canadian dollar may ultimately do much of (the) tightening for the bank, but we look for at least one more rate hike this year.