Elisabeth Denison
Elisabeth Denison
combine consumer cooling create federal gasoline housing market perfect picking prices reserve storm time watch
If the housing market is cooling at the same time as gasoline prices are picking up that could combine to create a perfect storm for consumer spending. This is something the Federal Reserve will watch very closely.
consumer good momentum news terms
It did come in stronger, so that's probably good news in terms of consumer momentum as we go into the new year.
definitely direction further pointing rate
It definitely is pointing in the direction of further rate hikes.
people starting weather winter worry
I think people are starting to worry about winter heating bills, especially now the weather is starting to turn.
certainly modest panic pressure rates reason resources
We've got tightening resources but modest ... pressure on wages. So no reason to panic for the Fed, but certainly more reason for them to take rates a little higher.
close fourth growth nice push rebound
What it will do is push up first-quarter growth probably close to 5.0 percent, so a nice rebound from the fourth quarter.
consumer looking partly quarter second start strong weather
We had a strong start to the year, partly weather and consumer related, and now we're getting indications for the second quarter and they're looking moderate.
employment labor people question shows
A lot of it has to do with the labor market, the employment question is where it shows up. People are disenchanted with employment growth.
definitely direction domestic eye fed further pace pointing prices rate worried
This is something the Fed is going to keep an eye on as it's domestic prices that they're worried about, the domestic pace of activity, and it definitely is pointing in the direction of further rate hikes.
bigger bit concerned core increases looking maybe people yesterday
Some people were concerned after the revisions yesterday and were maybe looking for bigger increases in the core (today) and there's a little bit of rallying, but it's very, very minor.
fourth quarter theme
The big theme in the fourth quarter is going to be consumption spending, that is the real driver.
against believe economic inflation lean momentum pressures rate remains
As long as the economic momentum remains strong, we believe they will still lean against inflation pressures with another rate hike.
best continuing hikes rate seem
For the Fed, continuing 25-basis-point rate hikes seem to be the best bet.
good labor last market report
The labor market has been robust. In the last month, we got a good payrolls report so that probably helped.