Ernie Goss
Ernie Goss
arkansas asian beef drive economic fourth growth half higher hunt japanese job losses opening overall pushed quarter second
Manufacturing job losses in the second half of 2005 pushed Arkansas' overall job growth for the fourth quarter to zero. However, Arkansas firms ... benefiting from the opening of the Japanese and other Asian beef markets, and J.B. Hunt Transport, profiting from the U.S. economic expansion, will drive Arkansas job growth higher in the first half of 2006.
commodity expect growth half higher interest prices push rates regional second
I expect higher commodity prices and escalating short-term interest rates to push regional growth down significantly in the second half of 2006.
areas arkansas businesses conditions economic expect growth job northwest parts portion quarter reasonably report second solid stronger
Businesses located in the Northwest portion of Arkansas tended to report stronger economic conditions than businesses in other parts of the state. However, I do expect reasonably solid job growth for most areas through the second quarter of this year.
added annual growth half higher mountain rate region rest second states
The Mountain States region experienced growth significantly higher than the rest of the nation. The region added 53,000 jobs, an annual growth rate of 2.9 percent, in the first half of 2005 but added only 41,000 jobs, an annual growth rate of 2.2 percent, in the second half of the year.
growth increases months past point quarter second solid
Increases over the past two months point to solid growth into the second quarter of this year.
higher interest quarter rates second stronger
It's going to be stronger in the first quarter and in the end of the second quarter. It's going to weaken as higher interest rates set in.
certainly clear february january played record region role supporting warm weather
It is certainly clear that record warm weather for much of the region for January and February played an important role in supporting the economy.
bullish convert definitely durable economic employment goods growth improving january job missouri months orders past picture producers several strong terms
Job growth in Missouri has definitely slowed over the past several months. In terms of hiring, Missouri experienced January job losses. However, strong new orders should convert to an improving employment picture in the months ahead. Durable goods producers were much more bullish in their economic assessments for January than non-durable goods manufacturers.
automobile challenges continue course driver growth industry missouri months near point related rest somewhat survey weaker
Survey results, while somewhat weaker than the rest of the nation, continue to point to growth for Missouri in the months ahead. Of course challenges and opportunities related to automobile industry restructuring will be an important driver in the near and intermediate term.
among business confidence energy expected fed higher hikes impacts managers negative rate regional supply warmer winter
The 15 Fed rate hikes and higher energy prices, even with the warmer than expected winter weather, are having negative impacts on confidence among regional supply managers and business leaders.
anticipate basis begin committee december designed expect experience federal force full gauge hike increase increased inflation interest january june last lower market meeting national near next open point pressures raise rates reserve since somewhat soon stated time year
While our inflation gauge and most national inflation indicators point to somewhat lower inflationary pressures ahead, I expect the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee to raise interest rates at its next meeting on Jan. 31. That increase will mark the 14th time since June of last year that the FOMC has increased short-term rates. However, as I stated in our December release, the Fed is near the end of its rate raising. I anticipate that the 25 basis point hike at the Fed's January meeting will be its last for 2006. Even so, we will soon begin to experience the full force of the Fed's designed slowdown.
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Transportation firms reported continuing economic weakness. While 2006 is likely to be a positive year for the Oklahoma economy due to an improving telecommunications sector and expansions in business service firms, the closing of GM operations in Oklahoma City will produce some fairly negative economic consequences.
began below pace somewhat strong utah
Utah began 2006 on a strong note, but on a pace somewhat below that of 2005.
affecting asian beef borders factor growth open partners rate state trading
The rate at which our Asian trading partners open their borders to U.S. beef will be an important factor affecting growth for the state in 2006.