Gary Dugan
Gary Dugan
higher markets might move numbers scene wants
I think everyone wants the markets to move higher -- there might be something of a rebound. But the scene will be set by the ISM. If that's weak, as our manufacturing numbers were in Europe, I think the market will be going down again.
although below challenges concern consensus corporate drive earnings fed increasing key markets numbers policy rates side slowing
There are two key challenges to the U.S. market: one is Fed policy -- and it's still our concern that the Fed will be increasing rates this side of Christmas; secondly, it's the slowing corporate earnings outlook. Although corporate earnings are still probably going to rise, I think there's a concern that numbers may come in below consensus and drive the markets down.
couple last market months relatively
Over the last couple of months the market has done relatively well and is now pausing to consolidate the gains.
closely linked markets street trading wall
London's trading is probably more closely linked to that of Wall Street than the other markets in Europe.
country domestic factors matter performance saying shown
We were saying that sectors matter now, not countries, but Germany's performance, with its preponderance of domestic issues, has shown that country factors still matter.
activity
We'll see an acceleration of M&A activity in 1999.
again burst energy given happened happening investors reaction starts
Given what's happening in Europe, which could be a knee-jerk reaction to what happened in the U.S. Friday, we're probably going to be down again (in the U.S.). What's been happening is that investors have a burst of energy for a week, then it starts to unravel.
people playing question trading
This was not good-quality institutional buying. It was really a question of people playing the trading range.
ahead following investors lead nervous people positive today
Today I think there will be a set back (in the U.S. markets) following the lead of Europe. Investors are nervous ahead of Sept. 11 -- people just don't want to take positive positions.
change feed felt fourth growth momentum quarter
We felt that the momentum of growth through the fourth quarter was going to feed into the first, there's no change of view.
domestic economy growth looking move
We're looking at growth which is more balanced. We're looking for this economy to move on through domestic demand.
banks bit facing good margin problem results rotation sector seen tech wake wreck
There's still a bit of a tech wreck going on in the wake of the Nasdaq weakness. The other problem is that we haven't had good sector rotation and we've seen a bit of a sell-off in the banks. The results for the banks have not been too good - they are facing margin pressures.
buying provide rather reasons resolve seen sell situations
These situations often provide buying opportunities, rather than reasons to sell stocks. We've seen all this before. They argue, and then they resolve things.
bid level people taking
This thing has been bid down and down. But I think on fundamentals now, taking a two to three-year view, people have got more comfortable with the level that we're paying.