Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
appears bit consumers energy improvement longer october prices rebuilding
We were anticipating that we could see a little bit of an improvement in October because the rebuilding after the hurricanes appears to have started and energy prices have stabilized, but it appears that it will take a little longer for consumers to feel better about things.
annual building instead percent personal possibly price rate revised
The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price deflator was revised from 0.7 percent annual rate to 1.0. That's still very low, but it was revised upward instead of downward. There is possibly some building inflationary pressure, but it's still very benign.
capital compared decline improve last months orders past positive relative rising seven sign
We've seen, over the past seven months or so, orders stabilize or improve slightly, compared to a big decline last year. Orders are rising relative to inventories, and that's a positive sign for capital spending.
good job positive seeing shows strong
We're still seeing a strong economy, ... shows that we still have very good job creation. I think it's very encouraging and a positive thing for American business.
adjusting continue environment seen worst
It suggests our manufacturers are adjusting to a new environment and will continue to grow, ... I think we have (already) seen the worst for manufacturing.
cooling dropping help homes housing inventory market sales support sustained
If sales can be sustained at this level, that would help support housing construction, but inventory of new homes is still increasing. The housing market is cooling off, but not dropping sharply.
cooling data gradually home homes housing increases market moderate october price sales seeing suggesting
The October home sales data were strong, but we are seeing more moderate price increases for new homes suggesting that the housing market is gradually cooling off.
banks central expected extra financial help hopefully markets people recognize restore shows sort
It shows the world central banks recognize the financial markets could use a little extra liquidity and support, ... Hopefully it will help restore confidence. A lot of people expected we would see some sort of coordinated effort.
bit consumer economy headline looking number production quarter strong suggest
I think the headline number is a bit misleading. It doesn't suggest that the economy is in trouble. Consumer durables production is looking solid, so it's looking like there's still going to be strong first quarter GDP growth.
component employment healthy lower november saw
The employment component was just a tad lower than what we saw in November so it's still a healthy number.
bias fed hold level low maintain policy rates steady toward
The Fed will probably hold rates steady at a low level as long as they can. And I think as long as the unemployment rate is rising, they'll maintain a policy bias toward weakness.
economy falter fed looking oil prices raise rates reason
The Fed may be looking at oil prices as a reason for the economy to falter and not a reason for it to overheat, so they won't want to raise rates yet,
claims economy employment strong suggesting year
Claims are still suggesting that the economy started the year with a strong employment situation.
anticipate fed good hold inflation news people stay
We got good news on inflation. People anticipate that with inflation still very low, the Fed will stay on hold for awhile.