Gary Thayer

Gary Thayer
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I think it's good news for the economy. When you take away the GM strike and average last month's figures with this month's, you see employment growth at moderate levels, which is good for sustainable growth.
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If we hadn't heard from Greenspan last week that the Fed is still worried about an uneven recovery, we might be more upset about these numbers. But Greenspan is concerned that these retail sales numbers could falter later on so these numbers probably won't have that great an impact.
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Inflation is creeping up, but it's not out of hand. I think that's pretty important. The bond market may have discounted a worst-case scenario over the last couple of months on inflation, and now maybe traders won't have to worry about the Fed moving too fast.
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It's still a good reading overall, but not quite as robust as we've seen in the last several months. The encouraging thing is that the employment component increased again. We are beginning to see businesses becoming a little more willing to hire.
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It suggests the drag on the economy from the trade deficit in the third quarter will not be as great and could help revise up third-quarter GDP a bit,
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The Fed will overlook the strength in the economy before Katrina and focus more on getting the economy back on its feet and probably will hold policy steady until we see how the economy is actually dealing with the shock of lost jobs and high gasoline prices resulting from Katrina.
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The increases (in gas prices) looks like it's hitting a critical level.
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The (February) manufacturing report was a little better than expected, showing continued growth in manufacturing.
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The values of the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar, as measured relative to the U.S. dollar, have been important signals of changing trends in global economic activity.
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The housing market is cooling off, but not too much, and inflation looks relatively benign.
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Historically, when we see confidence decline, we have to watch and see if it shows up also affecting spending. We'll be watching closely to see ... whether the decline in confidence is more of a psychological factor or a real factor affecting spending.
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It looks like real spending was quite healthy for the start of the third quarter.
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Claims are still suggesting that the economy started the year with a strong employment situation.
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The Fed will probably hold rates steady at a low level as long as they can. And I think as long as the unemployment rate is rising, they'll maintain a policy bias toward weakness.