Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
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It suggests the drag on the economy from the trade deficit in the third quarter will not be as great and could help revise up third-quarter GDP a bit,
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If sales can be sustained at this level, that would help support housing construction, but inventory of new homes is still increasing. The housing market is cooling off, but not dropping sharply.
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It shows the world central banks recognize the financial markets could use a little extra liquidity and support, ... Hopefully it will help restore confidence. A lot of people expected we would see some sort of coordinated effort.
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The longer Congress delays helping the economy out, the longer the economy will remain weak.
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This may help increase the inflation-fighting credibility of the Fed before we replace the chairman.
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The Fed will overlook the strength in the economy before Katrina and focus more on getting the economy back on its feet and probably will hold policy steady until we see how the economy is actually dealing with the shock of lost jobs and high gasoline prices resulting from Katrina.
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The increases (in gas prices) looks like it's hitting a critical level.
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The (February) manufacturing report was a little better than expected, showing continued growth in manufacturing.
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The values of the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar, as measured relative to the U.S. dollar, have been important signals of changing trends in global economic activity.
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The housing market is cooling off, but not too much, and inflation looks relatively benign.
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Historically, when we see confidence decline, we have to watch and see if it shows up also affecting spending. We'll be watching closely to see ... whether the decline in confidence is more of a psychological factor or a real factor affecting spending.
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It looks like real spending was quite healthy for the start of the third quarter.
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Claims are still suggesting that the economy started the year with a strong employment situation.
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The Fed will probably hold rates steady at a low level as long as they can. And I think as long as the unemployment rate is rising, they'll maintain a policy bias toward weakness.