Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
bit compared optimistic people weak year
We're still weak compared to where we were a year ago, but people are a little bit more optimistic about the future,
buyers levels looking risen risk willing yields
Yields have risen to levels where buyers looking for yields are willing to take a risk and buy.
consumers energy holiday looks numbers optimistic reduced relief spending until weak
Today's numbers show that consumers are not very optimistic about the economy. As a result, we will see consumer spending reduced until we see some relief on energy prices. If we don't get some relief, it looks like it will be a very weak holiday season.
couple data likely next reflect
Unfortunately, this is pre-Katrina data and may not reflect what we're likely to see in the next couple of months.
categories goods ok others outright sales seeing services strength
We're not seeing a lot of strength in goods and services right now. Sales are mixed. Some categories are doing OK and others are weak. We're not seeing an outright decline.
couple data decline dollar fall help higher inflation last narrow risk seen suggesting trade
(The data are) suggesting the decline we've seen in the dollar over the last couple of years is not having an impact. It suggests the dollar may still need to fall to help narrow the trade deficit. But there's a risk to higher inflation if it does.
component decline good looks moderation paid prices pricing seeing
The decline in the prices paid component is good news. It looks as if we're seeing some moderation in pricing pressures, but not a significant drop.
basically despite economy fact lower prices production seeing weak
We still have a very weak world economy, despite the fact that the U.S. economy is still doing pretty good, ... We're seeing lower prices basically because there is more production out there than demand.
annual building instead percent personal possibly price rate revised
The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price deflator was revised from 0.7 percent annual rate to 1.0. That's still very low, but it was revised upward instead of downward. There is possibly some building inflationary pressure, but it's still very benign.
good job positive seeing shows strong
We're still seeing a strong economy, ... shows that we still have very good job creation. I think it's very encouraging and a positive thing for American business.
companies cutting hear minds period weak weighs
We're still in a seasonally weak period of year, where companies are trimming workforces. It weighs on people's minds when they hear about companies cutting back.
appears bit consumers energy improvement longer october prices rebuilding
We were anticipating that we could see a little bit of an improvement in October because the rebuilding after the hurricanes appears to have started and energy prices have stabilized, but it appears that it will take a little longer for consumers to feel better about things.
affecting closely confidence decline factor shows watch watching whether
Historically, when we see confidence decline, we have to watch and see if it shows up also affecting spending. We'll be watching closely to see ... whether the decline in confidence is more of a psychological factor or a real factor affecting spending.
concerned falter fed great greenspan heard last later might numbers retail sales upset week worried
If we hadn't heard from Greenspan last week that the Fed is still worried about an uneven recovery, we might be more upset about these numbers. But Greenspan is concerned that these retail sales numbers could falter later on so these numbers probably won't have that great an impact.