Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
claims economy employment strong suggesting year
Claims are still suggesting that the economy started the year with a strong employment situation.
bias fed hold level low maintain policy rates steady toward
The Fed will probably hold rates steady at a low level as long as they can. And I think as long as the unemployment rate is rising, they'll maintain a policy bias toward weakness.
economy falter fed looking oil prices raise rates reason
The Fed may be looking at oil prices as a reason for the economy to falter and not a reason for it to overheat, so they won't want to raise rates yet,
bit consumer economy headline looking number production quarter strong suggest
I think the headline number is a bit misleading. It doesn't suggest that the economy is in trouble. Consumer durables production is looking solid, so it's looking like there's still going to be strong first quarter GDP growth.
component employment healthy lower november saw
The employment component was just a tad lower than what we saw in November so it's still a healthy number.
orders weakness
Manufacturing is expanding, but not as broadly as in November. There was weakness in new orders and employment.
disagree particular
I wouldn't disagree with some of the things he said, but I don't know why he said those particular things at this time.
consumers current feeling looks news
It looks like consumers are feeling at least better about the current situation. But I still think there is a lot of uncertainty about the future. The geopolitical news is not very comforting.
consumer good items looks lower news prices reading seeing seen unchanged
The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the nonpetroleum items and it looks like what we're still seeing is lower prices for many consumer items.
attitudes consumer daily dip energy january related rise seen sentiment small weekly
We had seen the daily and weekly sentiment surveys show a small dip in consumer attitudes at the end of January. Some of that could have been related to the late January rise in energy prices.
anticipate fed good hold inflation news people stay
We got good news on inflation. People anticipate that with inflation still very low, the Fed will stay on hold for awhile.
economy federal good news poised slow
We think the economy is poised to slow down and that's good news for the Federal Reserve.
buyers levels looking risen risk willing yields
Yields have risen to levels where buyers looking for yields are willing to take a risk and buy.
annual building instead percent personal possibly price rate revised
The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price deflator was revised from 0.7 percent annual rate to 1.0. That's still very low, but it was revised upward instead of downward. There is possibly some building inflationary pressure, but it's still very benign.