Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
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We got good news on inflation. People anticipate that with inflation still very low, the Fed will stay on hold for awhile.
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We think the economy is poised to slow down and that's good news for the Federal Reserve.
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We did see a big recovery in (producer) prices, but that was primarily in energy. Core prices increased only modestly and that's good news for the Fed.
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The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the nonpetroleum items and it looks like what we're still seeing is lower prices for many consumer items.
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The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the non-petroleum items ... so it doesn't look like we have a major inflation problem outside of oil, which is good for the Fed.
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The good news is that the inflation number was also revised down slightly but is still running higher than we saw a year or so ago,
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The bond market liked the inflation data. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds.
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It looks like consumers are feeling at least better about the current situation. But I still think there is a lot of uncertainty about the future. The geopolitical news is not very comforting.
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So core inflation is still rising slightly but doesn't appear to be a problem, and I think this is good news for the Federal Reserve . With energy prices declining it reduces the risk that fuel costs will be passed on to consumers.
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I think it's good news for the economy. When you take away the GM strike and average last month's figures with this month's, you see employment growth at moderate levels, which is good for sustainable growth.
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It's sort of a good news-bad news situation though, because if it gets out of hand, it can create other problems for the economy.
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I think we're close to a peak in the unemployment rate. The upswings in manufacturing and non-manufacturing show we're close to it now.
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I think we're close to a peak in the unemployment rate, ... The upswings in manufacturing and non-manufacturing show we're close to it now.
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I think what he's concerned about is that the economy is on a good, healthy trajectory and if we do see some upward pressure on inflation somewhere down the road that that could cause the economy to heat up a bit.