Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
act concern economy fear fed generate inflation mean point seem
There's still a lot more inflation fear than there is inflation. There is still concern that the economy could generate inflation at some point but it still doesn't seem to be doing that. The Fed doesn't need to act more aggressively, but it doesn't mean that they won't.
basis easily numbers revised third
Productivity numbers on a quarter-to-quarter basis are very volatile. The downwardly revised second-quarter numbers could easily be revised upward in the third quarter.
again confidence consumers current feeling highest level prospects
Confidence is up again -- to the highest level in over two years. Consumers are feeling better not only about current conditions, but also about prospects for the future.
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Energy prices are dropping, and consumer spending is holding up despite rising unemployment . These are encouraging things the market is recognizing.
claims combined conditions drop earlier employment good remain reported rise start
The rise in the employment component, combined with the drop in new jobless claims reported earlier today, suggests that employment conditions remain good at the start of the year.
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Fewer people are worried about jobs right now, more people think that jobs are easy to get, and I think that's supporting confidence despite the high energy prices.
clearly economy february good government looks march sector strong telling
They're very good numbers. It's telling us the manufacturing sector of the economy is clearly in recovery. It looks like we had not only a strong March but an even better February than the government previously estimated.
fed help increase replace
This may help increase the inflation-fighting credibility of the Fed before we replace the chairman.
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They're saying that some further policy firming may be needed, so it doesn't look like the Fed is seeing enough softness in the economy right now to warrant pausing.
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This is probably going to keep the Fed concerned about inflation. If the housing market is still healthy, policy-makers will probably continue to raise interest rates.
concerned fed
This is probably going to keep the Fed concerned about inflation.
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Companies may be paying more for raw materials and energy, but that is at least partially being offset by lower unit labor costs. That, I think, is likely to keep inflation contained.
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The upturn in confidence is an encouraging sign that economic conditions are stabilizing after the hurricanes. Lower energy prices are helping, but the upturn in employment is also a plus.
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We've seen, over the past seven months or so, orders stabilize or improve slightly, compared to a big decline last year. Orders are rising relative to inventories, and that's a positive sign for capital spending.