Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
companies inflation labor likely lower materials offset paying raw unit
Companies may be paying more for raw materials and energy, but that is at least partially being offset by lower unit labor costs. That, I think, is likely to keep inflation contained.
change earlier negative percent positive pressures producer recently seem
If you look at the 12-month change in producer prices, it's positive 0.9 percent. As recently as May, the 12-month change was negative 2.8 percent -- so there were a lot more deflationary pressures earlier in year, and those seem to be abating.
closely fed might rate rather saying sooner start taking time tone watching
It suggests the Fed is going to be watching closely to see if it is time to start taking back rate cuts. I don't think he is saying that is imminent, but his tone is that it might be sooner rather than later.
basis easily numbers revised third
Productivity numbers on a quarter-to-quarter basis are very volatile. The downwardly revised second-quarter numbers could easily be revised upward in the third quarter.
data economy emphasis fed instead looking
The Fed will probably not put a lot of emphasis on this data and instead will be looking more at the economy after the hurricane.
concerned fed
This is probably going to keep the Fed concerned about inflation.
concerned continue fed housing interest market raise
This is probably going to keep the Fed concerned about inflation. If the housing market is still healthy, policy-makers will probably continue to raise interest rates.
claims combined conditions drop earlier employment good remain reported rise start
The rise in the employment component, combined with the drop in new jobless claims reported earlier today, suggests that employment conditions remain good at the start of the year.
confidence consumer economy good heading holidays looks month next spending
It looks like the economy is stabilizing after the hurricane-related stresses and we're heading into the holidays with an upturn in confidence that is encouraging and bodes well for the good consumer spending over the next month or so.
interest numbers raise rates urgent
These numbers look as if there's no urgent need to raise interest rates much further.
bad softer
It's a little softer than expected, but it's not all bad news.
bit confidence healthy high pull saw year
Overall, confidence is still at a healthy level, up from where it was a year ago, but we did pull back a bit from the three-year high that we saw in June.
business economy good healthy shows side spending
It still shows a pretty healthy economy at this point. The manufacturing side of things and business spending will be good this year.
australian crude demand early looking oil peaked time zealand
Looking back, it is understandable why the Australian and New Zealand currencies peaked in early 2005. That was about the same time that the demand for crude oil also started to moderate.