Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
bit confidence healthy high pull saw year
Overall, confidence is still at a healthy level, up from where it was a year ago, but we did pull back a bit from the three-year high that we saw in June.
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The PPI numbers generally have been running higher than the CPI numbers, showing that the higher production costs are not being passed on.
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(The data are) suggesting the decline we've seen in the dollar over the last couple of years is not having an impact. It suggests the dollar may still need to fall to help narrow the trade deficit. But there's a risk to higher inflation if it does.
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The good news is that the inflation number was also revised down slightly but is still running higher than we saw a year or so ago,
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Policy-makers have been worried that rising energy costs could lead to higher prices for other things including higher wages and compensation, but it looks like companies are keeping their employment costs in check.
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Confidence is up again -- to the highest level in over two years. Consumers are feeling better not only about current conditions, but also about prospects for the future.
confidence despite easy energy fewer high jobs people supporting worried
Fewer people are worried about jobs right now, more people think that jobs are easy to get, and I think that's supporting confidence despite the high energy prices.
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The Fed will overlook the strength in the economy before Katrina and focus more on getting the economy back on its feet and probably will hold policy steady until we see how the economy is actually dealing with the shock of lost jobs and high gasoline prices resulting from Katrina.
close peak
I think we're close to a peak in the unemployment rate. The upswings in manufacturing and non-manufacturing show we're close to it now.
close peak
I think we're close to a peak in the unemployment rate, ... The upswings in manufacturing and non-manufacturing show we're close to it now.
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I think what he's concerned about is that the economy is on a good, healthy trajectory and if we do see some upward pressure on inflation somewhere down the road that that could cause the economy to heat up a bit.
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We got good news on inflation. People anticipate that with inflation still very low, the Fed will stay on hold for awhile.
buying consumers
It does show consumers are in a buying mood,
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It is encouraging that consumers are taking the negative things that are happening recently. Possibly the employment situation is outweighing other concerns.