Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
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Claims are still suggesting that the economy started the year with a strong employment situation.
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The employment component was just a tad lower than what we saw in November so it's still a healthy number.
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I think it's good news for the economy. When you take away the GM strike and average last month's figures with this month's, you see employment growth at moderate levels, which is good for sustainable growth.
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The upturn in confidence is an encouraging sign that economic conditions are stabilizing after the hurricanes. Lower energy prices are helping, but the upturn in employment is also a plus.
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It is encouraging that consumers are taking the negative things that are happening recently. Possibly the employment situation is outweighing other concerns.
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The rise in the employment component, combined with the drop in new jobless claims reported earlier today, suggests that employment conditions remain good at the start of the year.
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It shows that consumers are feeling poorly about the economy, similar to what we've see in other recessions. Confidence is not as low as it was in the recessions of the early 1990s and early 1980s, but it is dropping in response to the worsening employment situation and the concern about the terrorism threat.
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It's still a good reading overall, but not quite as robust as we've seen in the last several months. The encouraging thing is that the employment component increased again. We are beginning to see businesses becoming a little more willing to hire.
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It suggests the drag on the economy from the trade deficit in the third quarter will not be as great and could help revise up third-quarter GDP a bit,
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The Fed will overlook the strength in the economy before Katrina and focus more on getting the economy back on its feet and probably will hold policy steady until we see how the economy is actually dealing with the shock of lost jobs and high gasoline prices resulting from Katrina.
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The increases (in gas prices) looks like it's hitting a critical level.
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The (February) manufacturing report was a little better than expected, showing continued growth in manufacturing.
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The values of the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar, as measured relative to the U.S. dollar, have been important signals of changing trends in global economic activity.
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The housing market is cooling off, but not too much, and inflation looks relatively benign.