Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
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It is encouraging that consumers are taking the negative things that are happening recently. Possibly the employment situation is outweighing other concerns.
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Policy-makers have been worried that rising energy costs could lead to higher prices for other things including higher wages and compensation, but it looks like companies are keeping their employment costs in check.
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The rise in the employment component, combined with the drop in new jobless claims reported earlier today, suggests that employment conditions remain good at the start of the year.
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The upturn in confidence is an encouraging sign that economic conditions are stabilizing after the hurricanes. Lower energy prices are helping, but the upturn in employment is also a plus.
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Claims are still suggesting that the economy started the year with a strong employment situation.
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The big number is the employment number on Friday. If that number comes in weak for the third consecutive month, views on the Fed are likely to change significantly.
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The employment component was just a tad lower than what we saw in November so it's still a healthy number.
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I think it's good news for the economy. When you take away the GM strike and average last month's figures with this month's, you see employment growth at moderate levels, which is good for sustainable growth.
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It shows that consumers are feeling poorly about the economy, similar to what we've see in other recessions. Confidence is not as low as it was in the recessions of the early 1990s and early 1980s, but it is dropping in response to the worsening employment situation and the concern about the terrorism threat.
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It's still a good reading overall, but not quite as robust as we've seen in the last several months. The encouraging thing is that the employment component increased again. We are beginning to see businesses becoming a little more willing to hire.
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I think we're close to a peak in the unemployment rate. The upswings in manufacturing and non-manufacturing show we're close to it now.
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I think we're close to a peak in the unemployment rate, ... The upswings in manufacturing and non-manufacturing show we're close to it now.
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I think what he's concerned about is that the economy is on a good, healthy trajectory and if we do see some upward pressure on inflation somewhere down the road that that could cause the economy to heat up a bit.
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We got good news on inflation. People anticipate that with inflation still very low, the Fed will stay on hold for awhile.