Greg Valliere
Greg Valliere
changed election final outcome
in the final analysis, I don't think the election outcome has changed all that much.
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If they exchange gold wedding bands (the) price of gold will go up. If they travel to Europe on their honeymoon, the dollar will strengthen. If (Treasury Secretary) Robert Rubin and other administration officials are there, the Fed won't tighten again.
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There's a growing concern that the White House is out of touch. He has to show more empathy, and he hasn't done a good job on that.
bush clear
I think Bush would be a clear favorite.
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The two candidates who had backing from organized labor got slaughtered last night. You have to conclude that protectionist arguments just aren't going anywhere.
hill hurt seemed
O'Neill's gaffs have hurt him. There aren't a lot of Republicans on the Hill who like him. But he seemed to have the president's confidence.
comparable delay markets perceive talking temporary
This is not comparable to 2000. If we were talking 3,000 or 4,000 votes, it'd be a big story. But I think the markets will perceive this as a temporary delay of the inevitable.
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Even people who don't like Microsoft we talked to late yesterday were shocked. They felt this could give Microsoft an opening in the appeals process to claim, 'We didn't get due process, this judge was too impetuous, he moved too quickly.' Considering how great a job Jackson has done, for him to give Microsoft an opening at this late date was a little surprising.
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If I was a member of Congress I'd try to press him on is there a light at the end of the tunnel on measured rate hikes, and at what point the Fed decides enough is enough. You have to think after the August move we probably are in the eighth inning, but I doubt he'll be that explicit.
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There's an adage that the Fed cuts or hikes one time too many.
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The combination of fiscal and monetary stimulus right now is the largest I've seen in years. It's good for GDP. If the economy starts to hum, stocks should do well.
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I think what we all are hoping for is resolution sooner rather than later. I'm not sure that Gore's speech at noon today would reinforce the belief that this would get wrapped up quickly. (Some) segments of the market will do well whether it's Microsoft or drug stocks, but I think it might be a little bit premature.
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I have argued with great futility that this entire argument is based on a flawed premise. If you use a more realistic GDP assumption, based on what we've seen over the past few decades, Social Security won't go bankrupt.
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That may be one of reason (the Dow is) 9,800 -- maybe the markets have already begun to worry about the outcome not being known.