Greg Valliere
Greg Valliere
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I think political strategies now are in agreement that the public doesn't want a big huge change on anything, whether its health care or the contract with the gold standard.
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We'll probably get more rate cuts tomorrow, but I think you will probably see something on the fiscal side too. You may even get a little more on the tax side. Even Democrats agree that we might need a payroll tax cut,
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The Red Sox won four games in a row after being down three nothing, so anything is possible,but I think the markets would perceive this as a long shot. I think at some point today (Wednesday) Kerry and his people get together and decide they don't want to be perceived as sore losers.
appearance climate
There is a new climate in Washington. Even the appearance of impropriety can do in a career.
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He needs to restore investor confidence, ... It's extremely unlikely he would say anything that would be viewed negatively by the markets. He's going to make it clear that we are not looking at the abyss and we are not looking at a major recession.
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Bush said in the state of Washington, right before the Washington primary, that he had problems with the suit. He indicated he didn't necessarily favor a breakup. The next day he sort of retracted the comments, but he is on record as saying that he really opposes a breakup. So, I think the company would like to wait until after the election.
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Bush is going to get a post-election free pass on virtually all economic issues for the next few months.
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I have argued with great futility that this entire argument is based on a flawed premise. If you use a more realistic GDP assumption, based on what we've seen over the past few decades, Social Security won't go bankrupt.
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If they exchange gold wedding bands (the) price of gold will go up. If they travel to Europe on their honeymoon, the dollar will strengthen. If (Treasury Secretary) Robert Rubin and other administration officials are there, the Fed won't tighten again.
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If the dollar were to threaten below 120 yen again, they'll intervene again. I think they've got to improve their export sector. They've got to export their way out of this.
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If business had serious objections to him, he wouldn't have been nominated.
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You have to say that it could be a hollow victory, a pyrrhic victory, for the eventual winner if you will. We had a situation back in 1876, I'm told, where Rutherford B. Hayes won, but he was called Ruther 'fraud' B. Hayes for his whole term, and I think there's going to be a lot of sniping at the eventual winner as someone perhaps who won a tainted election,
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Even though there's a lot of angst over the budget, a cut of $56 billion over five years, or $40 billion in spending cuts over five years, is pretty mild ? it's almost a rounding error.
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Even people who don't like Microsoft we talked to late yesterday were shocked. They felt this could give Microsoft an opening in the appeals process to claim, 'We didn't get due process, this judge was too impetuous, he moved too quickly.' Considering how great a job Jackson has done, for him to give Microsoft an opening at this late date was a little surprising.