Greg Valliere
Greg Valliere
chance further negative proposals prospects stay trade
Are there any real protectionist proposals that have chance of enactment? No. The most negative thing I would say is that the prospects for further trade liberalization are not great, but what we've got in place will stay in place.
blow case certainly clients clinton house issue resigned senate tougher wall
That's the question, certainly, for all our clients on Wall Street. They're resigned to Clinton getting re-elected, but the real issue is if it's not by 10 points, but by 18 or 19 -- if it's the latter, then I think certainly the House will go Democratic, ... The Senate is a tougher case to make, but in a blow out, even the Senate could go.
changed election final outcome
in the final analysis, I don't think the election outcome has changed all that much.
affect august helps hike issues jones market people pocketbook rate sold talk
I really think when you talk about pocketbook issues that affect the electorate, people think about the Nasdaq (composite index) and the Dow Jones (industrial average). If we got another rate hike and the market sold off on that, I think people would be displeased. If there's no rate hike on August 22 and the market rallies, you've got to say that helps (Al) Gore.
analogy personally
I personally think the 1992 analogy has been overdone.
congress economy feeling middle might return
By the middle of the fall, if there's a feeling that the economy has withstood this blow, then Congress might be able to return to a more traditional agenda.
chance cliche days december drag markets true won
I'm up to a one-in-three chance that we will not know for days who won the election. And it could really drag on through December again. It's a cliche but it's a true cliche, that markets don't like uncertainty.
crippled dollar market president whether
If the President is really crippled I would look at the dollar to see whether there really is a market impact,
afford doubt influence republican tilt warren
He can afford to tilt at windmills, because he's Warren Buffett. But I doubt he can really influence the Republican leadership.
absorb country experience people
For the people who experience it, it's a tragedy, but for the country as a whole, we can absorb it.
august congress decides doubt eighth fed light measured member move point press rate tunnel
If I was a member of Congress I'd try to press him on is there a light at the end of the tunnel on measured rate hikes, and at what point the Fed decides enough is enough. You have to think after the August move we probably are in the eighth inning, but I doubt he'll be that explicit.
bigger commentary concern key knows markets nobody obviously patch price soft understanding
That's a commentary that the markets think the bigger concern is the soft patch, not inflation, ... Nobody knows how big a soft patch this is. The key to understanding a lot of this is obviously the price of oil.
appeal base both center cite classic election general move parties record win
That's a classic move in both parties -- appeal to the base to win primaries, then move to the center in a general election -- and I think he will do that. He will cite his record as governor, which was moderate, especially for Vermont.
changed earnings second thinking
It's changed a lot of thinking about earnings in the second quarter,