Greg Valliere
Greg Valliere
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They won't move on October 3 but, as you know, there's a meeting right after the election. If, during that period between now and November, the economy show signs of re-accelerating, and there's an inflation problem, they could move 25 (basis points) or 50 (basis points) if they had to.
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It's very hard to spin this story positively. My fear is this could drag on for months and months and months.
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There's an adage that the Fed cuts or hikes one time too many.
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The two candidates who had backing from organized labor got slaughtered last night. You have to conclude that protectionist arguments just aren't going anywhere.
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The Wall Street types want to make the United States attractive for investment, and a strong currency attracts investors.
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The combination of fiscal and monetary stimulus right now is the largest I've seen in years. It's good for GDP. If the economy starts to hum, stocks should do well.
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The key variable here is the consumer. As of now, consumer spending is way down so that may be the most critical thing they'll look at,
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This idea that the Fed is close to done is very puzzling,
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And forget about getting any new oil or natural gas out of Alaska.
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The markets would be perfectly happy with gridlock.
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The markets until recently have been oblivious to the possibility of a Kerry win.
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You've got a recession in the auto and computer industries, you've got inventories piling up, you've got mediocre consumer spending, you've got a terrible stock market. I think the time to cut rates is now and I think they are in a good position to do it. If the Fed shows tomorrow that they realize this economy needs stimulus, I think it would be a wonderful gift for the stock market.
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The general tone of the rhetoric form Gore has been quite hostile.
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The economy is so strong, revenues are coming in at a rate that no one predicted. What it came down to was they had to decide how much more new spending they could add and how much more they could cut taxes.