Henry Blodget
Henry Blodget
Henry Blodgetis an American businessman, investor, journalist, and author...
basic continue estimates increase large loss revenue steady
At the same time, however, we continue to be discouraged by one basic trend: a steady increase in our loss estimates without a correspondingly large increase in revenue or profitability estimates.
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While the combined entity will have a large global footprint, we think cultural and managerial integration of the two companies could pose a challenge longer term.
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While we still believe the model is compelling long term, the business continues to be heavily dependent on airline ticket sales. As a result, it appears management has limited visibility to accurately forecast the business.
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We continue to think there is long-term upside potential for the stocks of the leading companies in the Internet sector. Although we acknowledge the potential for appreciation over the intermediate term, we strongly believe that volatility remains a significant risk over this same timeframe and we would stress the long term.
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We continue to think some upside is possible to these estimates, despite weakness in the online advertising market. We are not looking for as much upside as in the past, however.
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We continue to believe Yahoo! will make a good long-term investment. As a result of the challenging advertising environment, however, we believe the stock could see significant downside in the next three to six months.
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We continue to believe that the first quarter will be the toughest quarter for online advertising. We expect market growth of only 10 percent year-over-year. We believe growth will then accelerate modestly through the year.
advertising believe bottom continue estimate growth market online until
We continue to believe in the long-term growth of online advertising. Near-term, however, we don't believe the market will bottom until the first quarter. We estimate only single-digit year-over-year market growth in the first quarter.
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We think the Internet is tremendously profound. It will continue to have an effect on the global economy over the next five-to-10 years. But there's no way that it is a large enough opportunity to support the 400 companies that have gone public. And I think if you look back in history at different emerging industries, we've often had this feeling that the PCs for example are going to change the world. All you have to do is buy a PC company and you're safe. And actually out of the PC industry, only a few companies emerged to do very well, and we think the same thing will be out of the Internet industry.
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We are simply exhausted by the endless postponement of financial gratification - and we think other investors are, too.
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We believe the comments on PC demand add weight to the view that the PC cycle may have bottomed. However, we believe it is still too early to 'call the bottom' -- especially if emerging weakness in European IT demand dampens prospects for a PC rebound there.
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We contend AOL Time Warner is powerful enough that it won't go gently into the night (unlike Novell, WordPerfect, Lotus, Netscape, et al). We do believe, however, that developments between the two companies over the next year or two will have significant bearing on the long-term direction of the industry.
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With paid search, advertisers bid against each other for rank positioning on commercial search terms, paying each time a user 'clicks' on their result.
positive regard ruling
Thus, we regard the ruling as an incremental positive for the stock.