Henry Blodget
Henry Blodget
Henry Blodgetis an American businessman, investor, journalist, and author...
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We think the Internet is tremendously profound. It will continue to have an effect on the global economy over the next five-to-10 years. But there's no way that it is a large enough opportunity to support the 400 companies that have gone public. And I think if you look back in history at different emerging industries, we've often had this feeling that the PCs for example are going to change the world. All you have to do is buy a PC company and you're safe. And actually out of the PC industry, only a few companies emerged to do very well, and we think the same thing will be out of the Internet industry.
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We also believe that some analysts are projecting that the company will miss the low end of the guidance range in Q3 and withdraw its goal of operating profitability in Q4. As a result, if the company hits the mid-point of the guidance range and reaffirms Q4 operating profitability, we would expect the stock to go up.
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We also believe such controversy, if any, would come at a poor time for Microsoft, given that the company is awaiting the Appeals Court ruling on the existing antitrust trial. As a result, we believe it is possible that this could put a damper on the positive sentiment surrounding the stock.
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A settlement as broadly described would represent a positive for the company and stock. Importantly, however, the states have reportedly not yet signed off on such a settlement, and without their support, the case will likely still head back to the district court.
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We do not expect significant upside to our estimates. As we have said before, we believe the company is going through an awkward transition from a hyper-growth, revenue momentum story to a long-term growth and earnings story. Despite its growing pains, we continue to believe long-term, patient investors will be rewarded.
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However, if the company is successful, we believe the cash burn can start to decline significantly in one to two quarters and can last CMGI through break-even.
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The company believes in one service with multiple devices...the proliferation of devices could actually be a demand driver for broadband due to the cost of additional phone lines.
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While the combined entity will have a large global footprint, we think cultural and managerial integration of the two companies could pose a challenge longer term.
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While we still believe the model is compelling long term, the business continues to be heavily dependent on airline ticket sales. As a result, it appears management has limited visibility to accurately forecast the business.
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We continue to think there is long-term upside potential for the stocks of the leading companies in the Internet sector. Although we acknowledge the potential for appreciation over the intermediate term, we strongly believe that volatility remains a significant risk over this same timeframe and we would stress the long term.
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We continue to think some upside is possible to these estimates, despite weakness in the online advertising market. We are not looking for as much upside as in the past, however.
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We continue to believe Yahoo! will make a good long-term investment. As a result of the challenging advertising environment, however, we believe the stock could see significant downside in the next three to six months.
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We continue to believe that the first quarter will be the toughest quarter for online advertising. We expect market growth of only 10 percent year-over-year. We believe growth will then accelerate modestly through the year.
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We continue to believe in the long-term growth of online advertising. Near-term, however, we don't believe the market will bottom until the first quarter. We estimate only single-digit year-over-year market growth in the first quarter.