Holger Schmieding
Holger Schmieding
Holger Schmiedingis a German economist, the current Chief Economist at Berenberg Bank based at their London officeand a frequent broadcaster and commentator on economic affairs in the media. Before joining Berenberg, he was a Senior Economic Advisor to the International Monetary Fund, a Senior Strategist at the Bank of America and worked for Merrill Lynch, based in Washington D.C., London and Frankfurt. The Financial Times Deutschland placed him at the top of the list of 50 analysts for the proven...
cut economy growth percent raise taxes whenever
Whenever an economy is struggling, one should not raise taxes, ... New taxes will probably cut growth by 0.3 percent of GDP.
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Six quarters of mostly below-trend growth are taking their toll. The trend in rising unemployment and muted wage pressures suggests underlying inflation in the UK could ease further, keeping the door open for a possible rate cut later this year.
hike rate remains
A May rate hike remains unlikely, in our view.
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This is the worst thing we've had from the German economy for some time.
bank chance cutting reasonable
There is a reasonable chance of the bank cutting rates.
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Germany is reaping the fruits of wage restraint and painful structural reforms. In addition, the change in government seems to have improved the business climate even if Merkel has so far done hardly anything in terms of serious economic reforms.
precise provide statement thursday vital
Still, the precise wording of the ECB statement on Thursday could provide some vital clues.
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The bank hiked rates aggressively in late 2003 and early 2004 to cool down an economic boom fueled by an explosive rise in house prices, and clearly attained that goal.
bit conflict numbers slightly
They were slightly more dovish than I expected. There is a bit of a conflict between the bank's statement, and the numbers they gave.
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Slow growth last year is still affecting the labor market.
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The last 24 hours were the worst setback for reform hopes in Europe in a long time.
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The ECB probably has not found a consensus yet on rate policy beyond Dec. 1. For this reason, the ECB is unlikely to provide any clear Fed-style guidance on the future course of rates,
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The figures are not proof yet of an economic slowdown as they are being distorted by cutbacks in work creation programs.
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This has weakened his claim to be the one who could lecture other financial ministers on how to run their economies. He should publicly apologize to the IMF staffers whom he scolded last time for being too pessimistic on the U.K.