Jason Schenker
Jason Schenker
accurately captures couple hope market months
After a couple of months of overestimating, we redid our modeling. We hope this more accurately captures what's going on in the market place.
appears bigger capacity concerns excess market question raise tap unlikely
The bigger question is does OPEC have excess capacity that it can tap into in the longer-term, ... It appears they're unlikely to raise their quotas, and that's not going to assuage market concerns about their capacity.
caused expected factors higher likely market next prices volatility year
Prices went a lot higher than most of us expected a year ago. The factors that caused prices to surge aren't likely to go away next year. The volatility of the market may even increase.
certainly data earnings market piece points report retail sales solid stock weeks
The retail sales report was the most significant piece of data we had in weeks and that certainly had the stock market going. It points to a solid first quarter, with earnings growth.
decide market month outcome possible stock takes worst
The worst possible outcome for the stock market is that it takes a month to decide the election,
economic katrina number resilience robust service shown survey wake
The ISM service survey joins a number of economic indicators that have shown robust economic resilience in the wake of Katrina and Rita,
health likely near overall
In the near term, the overall health of inventories is likely to be important.
held prices worries
Prices are being held up by worries about gasoline.
above justify prices production remain tough
If prices remain above 60 dollars, it will be tough for OPEC to justify a production cut.
companies oil profit stand
The companies stand to do some profit because the oil is already there. All they have to do is take it off the ground.
employment ill
The employment index, however, declined. This could bode ill for October's payrolls.
anticipate bubble homes
If there were a lot of homes in inventory, we could anticipate a bubble bursting, but there isn't,
consuming countries energy moving power shocks supply
Geopolitical power is moving from energy consuming countries to the producers. We may see more of these supply shocks in the years ahead.
sector seems solid
The manufacturing sector seems to be on a very solid footing.