Jason Schenker
Jason Schenker
looking oil price shifting year
I look at the futures curves, and they're shifting up; we're looking at, a year from now, the price being $40 a barrel. Oil won't be at $30 any more -- that's gone.
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Regardless of how large the draws are expected to be, especially in gasoline, seeing the actual numbers will be a shock.
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We have to wait for the refineries to come back on line, which will take a couple weeks. We're hearing a lot about the importance of getting the power going, but that isn't the only problem we will have reopening the refineries. Homes throughout the region are destroyed and workers need someplace to live.
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We've recently seen a series of minor conflagrations in Nigeria, which are resolved swiftly. The headlines raise awareness in the market but the price rises soon fade.
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The government's offer of barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has mitigated some of the upward price pressure on crude oil. The problems with gasoline and natural gas may not be helped even if the SPR is tapped. If refineries are offline and can't run the extra oil, it will make no difference.
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Truth be told, by the government's own study, this would have a minimal impact on price, decades in the future.
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We're looking at some positive expansion, solid growth in jobs and in general economic growth, and that's something we see continuing.
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We're seeing range trading in all of the energy contracts. The big question is whether this is the bottom or if we will go lower. In the short-term the inventory numbers and the weather will determine what we do.
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With the year-on-year deficit in gasoline and with economic growth it is hard to be bearish about energy in the short or medium term. The manufacturing and retail numbers, the regional and national numbers, wherever you look they are positive. The same goes for overseas.
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What we're seeing is a lot stronger numbers than were anticipated, also with an upward revision in August and July. All of this bodes well for the economy and shows perhaps the economy was not as severely affected by the hurricanes as initially anticipated.
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There are nice, healthy builds across the board, even in distillates. Barring a major geopolitical disruption, or things changing with OPEC, there will be pressure to the downside.
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There is justification for concern about natural gas prices at these levels. Prices now are essentially twice what they were last winter. That's likely to squeeze consumers.
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We're likely to see prices continue to trend upward. The biggest potential to push prices down is going to be an increase in supply, but right now supplies look pretty fixed.
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The crack spread of gasoline has collapsed, and only an escalation of Iranian tensions could buttress crude at this level.