Jason Schenker
Jason Schenker
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Although consumers care about headline inflation, it's not the Fed's priority. The Fed has its eye on the core.
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With gasoline futures at records a nationwide average of $3 at the pump is likely in the near-term.
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This warm weather is lowering demand for natural gas and heating oil. What the market does is all in the hands of the weatherman.
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There is no strategic government reserve of natural gas or refined products, and right now the biggest concerns in the marketplace are for products.
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We have to wait for the refineries to come back on line, which will take a couple weeks. We're hearing a lot about the importance of getting the power going, but that isn't the only problem we will have reopening the refineries. Homes throughout the region are destroyed and workers need someplace to live.
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We've recently seen a series of minor conflagrations in Nigeria, which are resolved swiftly. The headlines raise awareness in the market but the price rises soon fade.
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The government's offer of barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has mitigated some of the upward price pressure on crude oil. The problems with gasoline and natural gas may not be helped even if the SPR is tapped. If refineries are offline and can't run the extra oil, it will make no difference.
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Typically this time of year, we seek to build inventories. This is going to put us behind the eight ball going into the winter.
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There have been attempts this year to solve the bottleneck in the refinery part of the energy equation. That is still not resolved.
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Truth be told, by the government's own study, this would have a minimal impact on price, decades in the future.
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Whether we hit it today or next week, I don't really think hitting $50 is going to give us a downturn.
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We're looking at some positive expansion, solid growth in jobs and in general economic growth, and that's something we see continuing.
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We're seeing range trading in all of the energy contracts. The big question is whether this is the bottom or if we will go lower. In the short-term the inventory numbers and the weather will determine what we do.
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With the year-on-year deficit in gasoline and with economic growth it is hard to be bearish about energy in the short or medium term. The manufacturing and retail numbers, the regional and national numbers, wherever you look they are positive. The same goes for overseas.