Jay Bryson
Jay Bryson
headline number people underlying weaker
The headline number was weaker than what people expected. But when you look down into the underlying details, it's not as weak as what that headline number would suggest.
barriers brunt buy caused financing foreigners less point prices production reduction signs slowing sooner spending stop trade
Sooner or later, foreigners will stop financing the deficit. But at this point they show no signs of slowing down. If there were trade barriers that caused Americans to buy significantly less imports, production here would go up a little, but the thing that would take the brunt of the reduction is that our spending would go down as prices went up. We would have less of everything.
core overall people strength tend weakness
People tend to look at core to get a look at overall strength and weakness of the economy,
far fed report
As far as the scorekeeping at the Fed is concerned, today's report will go down in the 'reasons to tighten further' column,
anyone cut easy gap recession spending states trade united wants
It's very easy to get the trade gap to narrow, have a recession in the United States to cut spending here. But I don't think anyone wants that to happen.
growth half percentage point sliced
That sliced off about a half a percentage point in growth.
congress europeans flak happen happened obviously point sooner
Obviously they're getting a lot of flak from Congress and the Europeans as well. It was going to happen at some point anyway. It probably happened sooner than it would have if Congress and the administration hadn't said anything,
anyway billion deficit dollar expectation high increase looking low mid sounds trade
My expectation was the trade deficit would increase anyway into the low 60 (billion dollar a month) range. A $70 billion (monthly trade gap) sounds like a stretch, but we could be looking at the mid to high 60s now.
agree certainly greater month recession risk today
I would agree that the risk of recession is greater today than it was a month ago. I can certainly think of how we can get to recession.
achilles dependence economy europe foreign heel
The Achilles heel of the U.S. economy is its dependence on foreign capital...which may be the only way that Europe can keep American unilateralism in check,
badly budget conflict deficits destroy dollar eye far holding negative start stuck tab time
If things start to go really badly in Iraq, and we have a long conflict and have to destroy a lot of infrastructure, that would be very dollar negative because we will get stuck holding a lot of the tab for that, at a time when we have budget deficits going out as far as the eye can see.
account adding correct deficit fed reasons slow
The only thing that the Fed can do to correct the current- account imbalance is to slow the U.S. economy. If you are adding up reasons for why the Fed will keep on tightening, the current-account deficit is on that list.
begin dollar
When that happens, the dollar will begin to depreciate.
deficit demand few given higher imports increase next oil overall robust
We should see a big increase in oil imports and, given the overall robust demand in the U.S., we are also going to see higher non-oil imports. Over the next few quarters, the deficit is going to get bigger.