Jay Bryson
Jay Bryson
anyway billion deficit dollar expectation high increase looking low mid sounds trade
My expectation was the trade deficit would increase anyway into the low 60 (billion dollar a month) range. A $70 billion (monthly trade gap) sounds like a stretch, but we could be looking at the mid to high 60s now.
core overall people strength tend weakness
People tend to look at core to get a look at overall strength and weakness of the economy,
assistance card current entire european kingdom largely rebuilding states stick united
European governments have a card they could play in the current crisis: token assistance in the rebuilding of Iraq, which would largely stick the United States and the United Kingdom with the entire tab.
barriers brunt buy caused financing foreigners less point prices production reduction signs slowing sooner spending stop trade
Sooner or later, foreigners will stop financing the deficit. But at this point they show no signs of slowing down. If there were trade barriers that caused Americans to buy significantly less imports, production here would go up a little, but the thing that would take the brunt of the reduction is that our spending would go down as prices went up. We would have less of everything.
activity although consistent data decline economic november pace recent smaller suggest
Although little should be made of one month's data, the smaller pace of import decline in November is consistent with other recent data that suggest that U.S. economic activity may be stabilizing.
growth half percentage point sliced
That sliced off about a half a percentage point in growth.
far fed report
As far as the scorekeeping at the Fed is concerned, today's report will go down in the 'reasons to tighten further' column,
none others showing
I look at all these other indicators and say none of the others are showing recession. If he's going to make a mistake, it's going to be on being too hawkish.
exports grow imports large oil tall throw top twice
Imports are about twice as large as exports, so just to stabilize the deficit, exports have to grow twice as fast. That's a pretty tall order. Then you throw oil on top of it.
account china current deficit external financing large means overall rather requires spends trade
If there is an 'issue' with the US external accounts, it is not the bilateral trade deficit with China but rather the overall deficit that the US incurs. After all, the large current account deficit means that the US spends more than it produces, which requires financing from abroad.
dollar few imagine low maybe move next
I imagine we'll move into low 60's (billion dollar range), maybe even mid-60's, in next few months,
companies environment good rate rates rising
In general, a rising rate environment slows down growth, so most companies are not going to go as good as when rates are low.
fed looking resources stretched
That's something that the Fed has signaled it is looking at right now with resources getting stretched in the economy.
spend
It's not just China, it's not just oil. We spend more than we produce, end of story.