Jay Bryson
Jay Bryson
activity although consistent data decline economic november pace recent smaller suggest
Although little should be made of one month's data, the smaller pace of import decline in November is consistent with other recent data that suggest that U.S. economic activity may be stabilizing.
consistent data economy economy-and-economics struggling
The import data are consistent with an economy that is struggling to find its footing.
obviously people starting uncertain
People are starting to hedge bets. Obviously it's an uncertain time,
agree certainly greater month recession risk today
I would agree that the risk of recession is greater today than it was a month ago. I can certainly think of how we can get to recession.
begin dollar
When that happens, the dollar will begin to depreciate.
achilles dependence economy europe foreign heel
The Achilles heel of the U.S. economy is its dependence on foreign capital...which may be the only way that Europe can keep American unilateralism in check,
deficit demand few given higher imports increase next oil overall robust
We should see a big increase in oil imports and, given the overall robust demand in the U.S., we are also going to see higher non-oil imports. Over the next few quarters, the deficit is going to get bigger.
data exports increases marked recent sharp strength surprise
The real surprise is the strength in exports. These sharp increases in computer-related exports corroborate recent U.S. industrial-production data that show marked strength in high-tech industries.
account adding correct deficit fed reasons slow
The only thing that the Fed can do to correct the current- account imbalance is to slow the U.S. economy. If you are adding up reasons for why the Fed will keep on tightening, the current-account deficit is on that list.
bigger near
The deficit's probably going to get bigger in the near term.
abroad although exports grown guess june maybe picking quarter recent second signs soon surprise weaker
I guess if there's any surprise it's that I would have thought exports would have grown a little more than they did. But in the second quarter everyone else had weaker economies, although more recent signs are that things abroad are picking up. So maybe June was too soon to look for an increase.
badly budget conflict deficits destroy dollar eye far holding negative start stuck tab time
If things start to go really badly in Iraq, and we have a long conflict and have to destroy a lot of infrastructure, that would be very dollar negative because we will get stuck holding a lot of the tab for that, at a time when we have budget deficits going out as far as the eye can see.
assuming chinese higher japanese nobody rates spark wants
Assuming the spark does not happen, it can go on much longer, ... Nobody wants it to stop. We don't want to contemplate sharply higher rates and prices. The Japanese and Chinese don't want to contemplate it either.
swing
Obviously, this quarterly swing is a one-off event.