Jay Bryson
Jay Bryson
none others showing
I look at all these other indicators and say none of the others are showing recession. If he's going to make a mistake, it's going to be on being too hawkish.
spend
It's not just China, it's not just oil. We spend more than we produce, end of story.
exports grow imports large oil tall throw top twice
Imports are about twice as large as exports, so just to stabilize the deficit, exports have to grow twice as fast. That's a pretty tall order. Then you throw oil on top of it.
insurance outlook remains
The insurance payments are going to go away. The outlook remains very bleak.