Jay Bryson
Jay Bryson
barriers brunt buy caused financing foreigners less point prices production reduction signs slowing sooner spending stop trade
Sooner or later, foreigners will stop financing the deficit. But at this point they show no signs of slowing down. If there were trade barriers that caused Americans to buy significantly less imports, production here would go up a little, but the thing that would take the brunt of the reduction is that our spending would go down as prices went up. We would have less of everything.
growth half percentage point sliced
That sliced off about a half a percentage point in growth.
congress europeans flak happen happened obviously point sooner
Obviously they're getting a lot of flak from Congress and the Europeans as well. It was going to happen at some point anyway. It probably happened sooner than it would have if Congress and the administration hadn't said anything,
companies environment good rate rates rising
In general, a rising rate environment slows down growth, so most companies are not going to go as good as when rates are low.
fed impact likely march taken
The March CPI data, taken in isolation, likely will have very little impact on near-term Fed policy,
fed looking resources stretched
That's something that the Fed has signaled it is looking at right now with resources getting stretched in the economy.
account china current deficit external financing large means overall rather requires spends trade
If there is an 'issue' with the US external accounts, it is not the bilateral trade deficit with China but rather the overall deficit that the US incurs. After all, the large current account deficit means that the US spends more than it produces, which requires financing from abroad.
assuming chinese higher japanese nobody rates spark wants
Assuming the spark does not happen, it can go on much longer, ... Nobody wants it to stop. We don't want to contemplate sharply higher rates and prices. The Japanese and Chinese don't want to contemplate it either.
chinese cost goods lower means spend
The lower cost of Chinese goods means we can spend more on other goods and services.
assistance card current entire european kingdom largely rebuilding states stick united
European governments have a card they could play in the current crisis: token assistance in the rebuilding of Iraq, which would largely stick the United States and the United Kingdom with the entire tab.
obviously people starting uncertain
People are starting to hedge bets. Obviously it's an uncertain time,
activity although consistent data decline economic november pace recent smaller suggest
Although little should be made of one month's data, the smaller pace of import decline in November is consistent with other recent data that suggest that U.S. economic activity may be stabilizing.
continuing labor market shows
It shows the labor market is continuing to stabilize.
spend
It's not just China, it's not just oil. We spend more than we produce, end of story.