Jeffrey Saut
Jeffrey Saut
economy grew historic nowhere optimistic percent stocks talk
The cheerleaders talk about the economy growing, but the economy grew at 7 percent from 1966 to 1982, while stocks went nowhere because valuations were too optimistic. And they're optimistic now, by historic measurements.
assumption complacent earnings economy highs interest market mending momentum oil people prices rates record rising slowing terrorist
The market is not priced for oil prices at record highs and rising interest rates and slowing earnings momentum and terrorist worries. People are pretty complacent out there. The assumption is that the economy is mending and that this will be a robust, self-sustaining recovery.
consensus technology
The consensus is technology is cheap, and I think that's probably true.
coming deflation earnings growth guidance keeps percent recession worried year
I'm not bearish. I don't think we're going into a recession and I'm not worried about deflation ... But earnings growth should only be about 7 to 8 percent this year and guidance for earnings keeps coming down.
clearly combined consumers gallon gas gasoline great natural number point three
Consumers are clearly being impacted by the three hurricanes, ... That, combined with natural gas and gasoline prices, is having an effect. I think $3 a gallon gasoline is the tipping point to a consumer that is under siege. But this number is really no great surprise.
attention dissect fed folks mean pay says talk tries
I don't pay much attention to what the Fed says because I don't know what they mean when they say it. It's like Nostradamus. These folks talk in quatrains. It's kind of comical as everyone tries to dissect this stuff,