Jeremy Stretch
Jeremy Stretch
current growing peak percent perception
There's a growing perception that 4.5 percent is not going to be the peak in the current cycle.
against course poor pound pressure rate run seen spread toward
We've seen the rate spread narrowing over the course of 2005, and sterling has had a poor run against the dollar. The pound could come under pressure toward the end of the first half.
case dollar economic few good momentum past run seen weeks
We've seen a very good run in the dollar but it's been the case in the past few weeks that it hasn't been able to make much momentum on the back of what's been pretty good economic data,
forced lower
Ultimately, the ECB will lower rates. I don't think they wanted to be forced into doing it.
forced lower
Ultimately, the ECB will lower rates, ... I don't think they wanted to be forced into doing it.
cable continue fed half hike lower might recovery second year
Cable (sterling/dollar) could go lower in the first half of the year as we think the Fed will continue to hike rates, but in the second half we might see a recovery in sterling.
dollar early euro fall interest start suggesting
Interest rates, I think, will start to fall in the U.S. in 1999, suggesting that the Euro will outperform the dollar in the early stages.
confidence consumer helps housing market supportive
Confidence in the housing market helps consumer spending. That'll be supportive for sterling and it's not going to play too well with the shorter end of the gilt curve.
korea likely news north positive
The North Korea news is also likely to be positive for the dollar.
case election hit perception reasonable scenario seen surprising worst
It's not surprising we have seen a sizeable hit in the euro. There was a reasonable perception it would be a close-run election and everybody's worst case scenario has come to pass,
background coming deflation durable economic investors large looks move positive recovery seeing
It's a positive background for the yen, and investors are coming back in after a large move yesterday. The economic recovery looks pretty durable and we'll be seeing the end of deflation soon.
backdrop greenspan growth outlook positive rate time
At the same time we had Greenspan reinforcing that the U.S. growth backdrop and rate outlook are positive for the dollar.
ambitious cautious consumer costs energy expecting fact future growth impact led market mentioned spending statement
The market got ambitious in what they were expecting from the Fed. The fact that the statement mentioned energy costs having some impact on consumer spending led some to be a bit cautious on the future growth outlook.
conference euro grind higher press tone trying
The euro is trying to grind higher but it's still in a range. The tone of a post-decision press conference will be important.