Jeremy Stretch
Jeremy Stretch
becoming betting confident given investors japanese keen people questions rate seem value
Japanese authorities seem very comfortable with the value of the yen and investors are keen to buy. Given that there are questions about the U.S. rate cycle, people are becoming more confident in betting on the yen.
confidence consumer helps housing market supportive
Confidence in the housing market helps consumer spending. That'll be supportive for sterling and it's not going to play too well with the shorter end of the gilt curve.
business majority
They are situated in Europe, but the majority of their business is in dollars,
conference euro grind higher press tone trying
The euro is trying to grind higher but it's still in a range. The tone of a post-decision press conference will be important.
against argument driving euro main momentum power spread
The narrowing in the spread between two-year bunds and Treasuries is very important, as the interest-rate spread argument is one of the main arguments driving the dollar. I don't think we will have enough momentum to power aggressively against the euro by the end of the year.
asian countries expecting forceful given japan market rest statement strong stronger tolerate
The statement was a lot more forceful than the market was expecting and that has given Asian currencies a strong boost. Japan is going to have to tolerate a stronger currency, like the rest of the countries in the region.
current growing peak percent perception
There's a growing perception that 4.5 percent is not going to be the peak in the current cycle.
continues dollar favor fed highly hikes japanese rates short time view yield zero
We're still going to get Japanese rates at zero for some time yet. The Fed continues to underpin the view that more rate hikes are highly probable, and yield premiums favor the dollar in the short term.
forced lower
Ultimately, the ECB will lower rates, ... I don't think they wanted to be forced into doing it.
forced lower
Ultimately, the ECB will lower rates. I don't think they wanted to be forced into doing it.
bottom cycle economic euro export improving last level light modest seeing suggest tail terms tunnel
We probably are at the bottom of the economic cycle and that would suggest that there is some modest light at the end of the tunnel particularly in terms of an improving export backdrop, ... The euro is at a much more competitive level than we were seeing at the tail end of last year.
case dollar economic few good momentum past run seen weeks
We've seen a very good run in the dollar but it's been the case in the past few weeks that it hasn't been able to make much momentum on the back of what's been pretty good economic data,
against course poor pound pressure rate run seen spread toward
We've seen the rate spread narrowing over the course of 2005, and sterling has had a poor run against the dollar. The pound could come under pressure toward the end of the first half.
fact fairly hands key policy reason reforms risks stay
The fact that two ministries that are key to reforms are not in the hands of the CDU is fairly disappointing. With the risks of policy paralysis, it's another reason to stay away from the euro.