Jeremy Stretch
Jeremy Stretch
against course poor pound pressure rate run seen spread toward
We've seen the rate spread narrowing over the course of 2005, and sterling has had a poor run against the dollar. The pound could come under pressure toward the end of the first half.
ambitious cautious consumer costs energy expecting fact future growth impact led market mentioned spending statement
The market got ambitious in what they were expecting from the Fed. The fact that the statement mentioned energy costs having some impact on consumer spending led some to be a bit cautious on the future growth outlook.
backdrop greenspan growth outlook positive rate time
At the same time we had Greenspan reinforcing that the U.S. growth backdrop and rate outlook are positive for the dollar.
dollar early euro fall interest start suggesting
Interest rates, I think, will start to fall in the U.S. in 1999, suggesting that the Euro will outperform the dollar in the early stages.
downside euro reason riots scope sell
There's scope for the euro on the downside especially if the riots continue. It's another reason to sell the euro.
background coming deflation durable economic investors large looks move positive recovery seeing
It's a positive background for the yen, and investors are coming back in after a large move yesterday. The economic recovery looks pretty durable and we'll be seeing the end of deflation soon.
bulls euro
I think euro bulls were disappointed by the ECB,
coming continue data higher positive rates strong talk
If we continue to see strong data coming through talk of higher rates will be perpetuated. Sterling has a pretty positive background.
cable continue fed half hike lower might recovery second year
Cable (sterling/dollar) could go lower in the first half of the year as we think the Fed will continue to hike rates, but in the second half we might see a recovery in sterling.
korea likely news north positive
The North Korea news is also likely to be positive for the dollar.
crossover fed hike inevitably market pressure
The Fed is going to hike more than the market is anticipating. A crossover would inevitably put more pressure on the pound.
ahead continue data fed looking people tomorrow
People are looking ahead to the CPI data tomorrow that I think will probably continue the presumption that the Fed has still got a little way to go with hiking.
case election hit perception reasonable scenario seen surprising worst
It's not surprising we have seen a sizeable hit in the euro. There was a reasonable perception it would be a close-run election and everybody's worst case scenario has come to pass,
activity continuing floor influence key months provide recent weeks
M&A activity has been a key influence on sterling over the recent weeks and months ... and if that's going to be a continuing theme, then that will at least provide a floor for sterling.