Jeremy Stretch
Jeremy Stretch
against course poor pound pressure rate run seen spread toward
We've seen the rate spread narrowing over the course of 2005, and sterling has had a poor run against the dollar. The pound could come under pressure toward the end of the first half.
conference euro grind higher press tone trying
The euro is trying to grind higher but it's still in a range. The tone of a post-decision press conference will be important.
crossover fed hike inevitably market pressure
The Fed is going to hike more than the market is anticipating. A crossover would inevitably put more pressure on the pound.
bit capacity extra logistics pressure problem releasing serious south supply
It's all very well releasing a little bit of extra oil, but the other problem is logistics with refining. Refining capacity is under serious pressure in the South of the U.S., and extra supply isn't going to alleviate the refinery shortage.
becoming betting confident given investors japanese keen people questions rate seem value
Japanese authorities seem very comfortable with the value of the yen and investors are keen to buy. Given that there are questions about the U.S. rate cycle, people are becoming more confident in betting on the yen.
bulls euro
I think euro bulls were disappointed by the ECB,
ahead continue data fed looking people tomorrow
People are looking ahead to the CPI data tomorrow that I think will probably continue the presumption that the Fed has still got a little way to go with hiking.
activity backdrop data economic fairly likely lower prove rates recent remains risk suggesting supportive time
M&A activity is likely to prove supportive for sterling and with recent economic data suggesting there is no risk of lower rates any time soon, I think the backdrop remains fairly constructive.
activity continuing floor influence key months provide recent weeks
M&A activity has been a key influence on sterling over the recent weeks and months ... and if that's going to be a continuing theme, then that will at least provide a floor for sterling.
beg bit broken further levels move obviously overdone question reasonably technical whether
I think probably yesterday's move was a little bit overdone but obviously we've broken through some reasonably sizeable technical levels and that does beg the question as to whether there is a bit further to run.
fact fairly hands key policy reason reforms risks stay
The fact that two ministries that are key to reforms are not in the hands of the CDU is fairly disappointing. With the risks of policy paralysis, it's another reason to stay away from the euro.
continues dollar favor fed highly hikes japanese rates short time view yield zero
We're still going to get Japanese rates at zero for some time yet. The Fed continues to underpin the view that more rate hikes are highly probable, and yield premiums favor the dollar in the short term.
coming continue data higher positive rates strong talk
If we continue to see strong data coming through talk of higher rates will be perpetuated. Sterling has a pretty positive background.
case chase election people performed reluctant since
Since the election was called the yen has performed pretty well and it may well be the case that people are reluctant to chase it higher.