Joe Osha
Joe Osha
consumer discrete graphics holidays processing push sales selling suffer unit
Without the consumer Vista push for the 2006 holidays selling season, we think that discrete graphics processing unit sales could suffer slightly.
driven fact growth intel market positive pushing reason stock
The reason I am positive on the stock right now is the fact they are pushing into servers, workstations -- the things that are being driven by growth in the Internet. That is a big market that Intel can dominate, I think, pretty quickly.
appears company difficulty earnings growth high imagining investor level moving percent raise rate recovery stock sufficient
Valuation for the stock appears significantly high for a company with a sustainable earnings growth rate of 10 percent to 15 percent. We have difficulty imagining any second-half recovery that could raise earnings, and investor expectations, to a level sufficient to keep the stock moving up.
apply believe blunt continue desktop effort further intel markets mobile negative pressure result shares
We continue to believe Intel will apply competitive pressure to AMD in the desktop and mobile markets in an effort to blunt further shares gains, even if the result is negative for Intel's own profitability in 2006.
absence argument bad consensus constitute fourth likely news outlook rally relief stock struggle support understand upbeat
We think it's likely that the stock will see a short-term rally on relief that the outlook has not deteriorated further, but the absence of bad news does not constitute an argument in support of the stock...we struggle to understand the upbeat consensus outlook for the fourth quarter.
bought community investment
We think that the investment community has bought into the idea of a second-half recovery, and that's probably going to happen.
estimates march points raising strength
We're not raising our estimates for the March quarter, but the strength at Motorola points to the possibility of upside.
added although capacity change companies fourth happening less negative past rate terms themselves worst
What we see happening is a bottoming to the rate of change in the semiconductor business, which has been negative and less capacity being added by the fourth quarter, which is also good. So, although companies themselves are still very conservative we think that the worst is past in terms of the downturn here.
adjustment expect fact gains given impact low market negatively next numbers product share stock surprised
We are not too surprised by AMD's announcement and do not expect the adjustment to numbers to impact the stock negatively at this point. Given the fact that AMD's product lineup at the low end of the market is more competitive than Intel's, we expect to see market share gains in the first part of next year.
believe completed intel largely prior quarter shipping
We believe that Intel had largely completed shipping its quarter prior to Sept. 11.
believe coming forced intel pressure pricing respond
We believe that Intel will be forced to respond competitively to AMD in the coming year, which may put more pressure on Intel's pricing than we had expected.
investors love
We'd love to tell investors that we anticipated Intel's problems, but we did not.
aggressive allow build continue intel market pricing rather respond suspect
We suspect that Intel will, at some point, respond with aggressive pricing rather than allow AMD to continue to build market presence.
choices consequences design expensive last november resulted seeing wrote
We wrote last November that Sony's design choices for the PS3 had resulted in an expensive and difficult-to-manufacture product, and we think that we're seeing the consequences of those choices play out now.