Joe Osha
Joe Osha
adjustment expect fact gains given impact low market negatively next numbers product share stock surprised
We are not too surprised by AMD's announcement and do not expect the adjustment to numbers to impact the stock negatively at this point. Given the fact that AMD's product lineup at the low end of the market is more competitive than Intel's, we expect to see market share gains in the first part of next year.
appears company difficulty earnings growth high imagining investor level moving percent raise rate recovery stock sufficient
Valuation for the stock appears significantly high for a company with a sustainable earnings growth rate of 10 percent to 15 percent. We have difficulty imagining any second-half recovery that could raise earnings, and investor expectations, to a level sufficient to keep the stock moving up.
business challenges currently earnings faces given intel lower multiple needs stock trade
Given the challenges Intel faces currently with its business model, we think the stock needs to trade on a lower multiple of 2003 earnings to be attractive.
absence argument bad consensus constitute fourth likely news outlook rally relief stock struggle support understand upbeat
We think it's likely that the stock will see a short-term rally on relief that the outlook has not deteriorated further, but the absence of bad news does not constitute an argument in support of the stock...we struggle to understand the upbeat consensus outlook for the fourth quarter.
driven fact growth intel market positive pushing reason stock
The reason I am positive on the stock right now is the fact they are pushing into servers, workstations -- the things that are being driven by growth in the Internet. That is a big market that Intel can dominate, I think, pretty quickly.
appears building data dominant inventory less points question result stocks whether worries
One of the dominant worries here is the question of whether we're going to see any building of inventory that will result in 1Q weakening. But as the data points have rolled in, that appears to be less and less the case. That's pretty important, and you can see it, in particular, in some of the communications stocks that are moving.
bit business capacity case correction declare demand focus growing investment percent pricing quite relationship revenue scare seen slightly spending stocks summer though time visibility wireless
We've seen investment in capacity go up quite a bit and we had a scare this summer with wireless. So you can make a case that the business is in trouble. We try to focus on slightly longer-term fundamentals. The relationship between spending and revenue in this business is still reasonable. Visibility is still good. Pricing is good. Let's not forget, wireless handset demand is growing 50 percent over year-on-year. So with stocks down a bit and the fundamentals still solid, we though it was time to declare the mid-cycle correction over.
buyers company deeply hands intel loss neutral past rating staying stock strong suffers until
For now, we're staying with the neutral intermediate-term rating on AMD's stock until we see how the company weathers the Northwood launch. We are still long-term strong buyers of the stock -- even if AMD suffers at the hands of Northwood it will not plunge as deeply into loss as it has during past Intel offensives.
although began believe evidence hard highs hitting late next prices sector stock strongly support
It is very hard to find any evidence of a real end to the upturn that began in late 1998. Although we see little to support semiconductor stock prices during the next two months, we strongly believe that the sector will be hitting new highs before the end of the year.
advise beginning below buying concerns correction globally investors march stocks thesis
The concerns that underpinned our mid-cycle correction thesis are beginning to dissipate, and semiconductor stocks globally are well below their March highs. We would advise investors to begin buying semiconductors more aggressively.
company incapable intel mean
Just because Intel has faltered does not mean the company is now incapable of executing.
apply believe blunt continue desktop effort further intel markets mobile negative pressure result shares
We continue to believe Intel will apply competitive pressure to AMD in the desktop and mobile markets in an effort to blunt further shares gains, even if the result is negative for Intel's own profitability in 2006.
consumer discrete graphics holidays processing push sales selling suffer unit
Without the consumer Vista push for the 2006 holidays selling season, we think that discrete graphics processing unit sales could suffer slightly.
estimates march points raising strength
We're not raising our estimates for the March quarter, but the strength at Motorola points to the possibility of upside.