Joel Naroff
Joel Naroff
ahead collapse decent economy huge moving orders rebound shows
The huge rebound in orders shows that, not only did the economy not collapse in June, but it is actually moving ahead at a decent clip,
confidence despite remains
Despite the faltering confidence numbers, consumption remains strong, and that is all that really matters,
across building pressures
Slowly, but inexorably, inflationary pressures are building across the economy.
act carefully equity issues markets prepared remain risks watching
They're going to say they're carefully watching the issues in the equity markets and are prepared to act if necessary, but right now the risks remain balanced,
extra fed insurance june looks report wants
The Fed wants to see results, and this report didn't give it to them, ... It looks right now as if the Fed will take out some extra insurance on June 25.
cutting households indicate start tells
It doesn't indicate that households are going to dramatically start cutting back spending, but this does tells us that consumption, at least in this quarter, isn't going to be that great,
buying decline demand forget june level market mortgage people rates showing sign wonder
Forget the decline from the June pace. What is important is the level of activity, and that is extraordinarily high, ... This market is showing no sign of weakness. With mortgage rates so low, it is no wonder that people are still out there buying homes. And with demand strong, construction is not going to fail.
cannot conclude consumers few given previous spent touch weather
Consumers may have throttled back a touch in February, but given the weather and all they had spent the previous few months, we cannot conclude that consumption is faltering.
consumers sector surprise
With consumers not spending, is it any surprise that the manufacturing sector has stumbled?
clearly expect prices reason wholesale
Wholesale prices are going nowhere. We don't have deflation, but clearly there is no reason to expect prices to jump.
early estimates impacts katrina starting
We are starting to get early estimates of the impacts of Katrina and they are ugly.
bears economy points reached
There are seminal points in economies, and they're reached rarely, ... We reached one in the 1990s, and we will not go back to an economy that bears any resemblance to the one before.
current great homes number problem selling toward trend
There is an ever-growing number of homes on the market, and while the overhang is not great at the current selling pace, it could become a problem if we trend back toward more sustainable levels,
air bubbles collapse country far likely losing plenty rapidly
There are plenty of bubbles around the country that are losing air rapidly and more are likely to follow. But so far there is no generalized collapse in the market.