John Davidson
John Davidson
although concerns continues downside economy gains job limiting limits market saw upside
What's limiting us on the upside is the double-digit gains we saw in 2003. What limits us to the downside is that the economy continues to strengthen, although concerns about the job market persist.
companies earnings good maybe negative percent positive range stock straight strong summer tone trading
I think we're in a good earnings season. So far, of the S&P 500, 139 companies have reported. Over 60 percent have been upward surprises, only 8 percent of them have really been negative surprises. So we're in a strong earnings season. That's good for the stock market, ... I think the market's in a trading range right now. I don't think it's going straight up from here. I don't think necessarily we're going to get a big summer rally, but maybe a positive tone to the market.
employment federal fold job manage objective price stability stock
The Federal Reserve's objective is two fold -- price stability and employment growth. All too often we think it's the Fed chairman's job to manage the stock market, when it's not.
ahead catch continue economic gotten jobs last market news report seeing several start stocks
For the last several weeks, the market has gotten ahead of the economic news. You're seeing that with the jobs report this morning. For stocks to continue to climb, you need to see the economic news start to catch up.
bank cut england fed positive rates response stocks
If stocks keep deteriorating and the Fed were to cut rates in a coordinated response with the Bank of England, you could see some short-term positive response,
continued continuing despite economy expansion last percent question reflected report returns saw stocks whether
Despite the decline, the ISM report was very positive, and what you can take away from it is that the economy is continuing to expand. The question for 2004 is whether that continued expansion has already been reflected in the 25 percent returns you saw in stocks last year.
earnings expecting growth market markets news reacting
There's a lot of earnings and other news out there today, but I think the market is particularly reacting to Greenspan's testimony, ... The markets are expecting a little more growth because of his comments, but that may not be as much as what they wanted to hear.
committing grow investing investment lead market next people rent retirement saving technology waiting
If you're out of the market you need to be in the market if you're saving for your long-term retirement or for other elements, ... People have been waiting on the sidelines, not committing as much new money. I don't think you should be investing next week's rent check, but your long-term investment is going to really grow in the market, and technology will lead that.
fourth positive quarter
I think the fourth quarter will be positive on earnings.
claims key level
I think that's a psychological level more than anything else, but what's key is that the jobless claims are climbing.
given people tried
He's always given of his time. He's always tried to do the right thing. Going to Italy, I think this thing may become a big story over there if people want to make it a big story. Otherwise, it shouldn't.
environment materials natural people seem toward
In this environment, people seem to have gravitated toward natural resources, utilities and materials and away from technology.
belief bouncing claims few fully market morning next number pick rally reflected seeing seen start weekly
The market has now fully reflected its belief in a second-half pick up, but for the kind of rally we've seen to continue, you're going to need to start seeing evidence. The weekly jobless claims number this morning is a start, but it's not enough. We could be bouncing around in the next few weeks.
david involved process
David is very hands-on. He's as much involved in the process as we are.