John Davidson
John Davidson
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If you're out of the market you need to be in the market if you're saving for your long-term retirement or for other elements, ... People have been waiting on the sidelines, not committing as much new money. I don't think you should be investing next week's rent check, but your long-term investment is going to really grow in the market, and technology will lead that.
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The market has now fully reflected its belief in a second-half pick up, but for the kind of rally we've seen to continue, you're going to need to start seeing evidence. The weekly jobless claims number this morning is a start, but it's not enough. We could be bouncing around in the next few weeks.
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If you look out into next week, you've got the weapons report from inspectors due and the current view is that people may be reluctant to put money to work ahead of that.
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Even just a month ago, prior to the release of the March payrolls number, there were some investors betting that rates wouldn't rise until early next year. Now, after two months of higher payrolls, it seems likely rates are set to rise, and so there's a certain throwing in of the towel for some investors.
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I think investors need to invest. I think the risk of being out of the market and missing the upturn is important. As we go down the road, I think we're going to get further increases. I don't think you should be investing next week's rent check. But I think your long term investment is going to really grow in the market and technology will lead that.
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I think we'll close the year in positive territory. But in the next few weeks you're going to see the market in a continued struggle back and forth with people trying to determine whether we have a full economic recovery, even with the labor market struggling.
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CPI and PPI next week could be a little light, so that might get some attention,
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Bush needs pretty quickly to turn this economy around. If we languish for the next two years, it'll be the last two years of Bush's presidency.
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But I think people's focus next week is not going to be Wall Street, it's going to be the holidays. I think you'll see a modestly up week.
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There's a lot of earnings and other news out there today, but I think the market is particularly reacting to Greenspan's testimony, ... The markets are expecting a little more growth because of his comments, but that may not be as much as what they wanted to hear.
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I think the fourth quarter will be positive on earnings.
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I think that's a psychological level more than anything else, but what's key is that the jobless claims are climbing.
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He's always given of his time. He's always tried to do the right thing. Going to Italy, I think this thing may become a big story over there if people want to make it a big story. Otherwise, it shouldn't.
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I think we're in a good earnings season. So far, of the S&P 500, 139 companies have reported. Over 60 percent have been upward surprises, only 8 percent of them have really been negative surprises. So we're in a strong earnings season. That's good for the stock market, ... I think the market's in a trading range right now. I don't think it's going straight up from here. I don't think necessarily we're going to get a big summer rally, but maybe a positive tone to the market.