John Davidson
John Davidson
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I think we'll close the year in positive territory. But in the next few weeks you're going to see the market in a continued struggle back and forth with people trying to determine whether we have a full economic recovery, even with the labor market struggling.
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I think investors need to invest. I think the risk of being out of the market and missing the upturn is important. As we go down the road, I think we're going to get further increases. I don't think you should be investing next week's rent check. But I think your long term investment is going to really grow in the market and technology will lead that.
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Bush needs pretty quickly to turn this economy around. If we languish for the next two years, it'll be the last two years of Bush's presidency.
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Even just a month ago, prior to the release of the March payrolls number, there were some investors betting that rates wouldn't rise until early next year. Now, after two months of higher payrolls, it seems likely rates are set to rise, and so there's a certain throwing in of the towel for some investors.
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CPI and PPI next week could be a little light, so that might get some attention,
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But I think people's focus next week is not going to be Wall Street, it's going to be the holidays. I think you'll see a modestly up week.
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The market has now fully reflected its belief in a second-half pick up, but for the kind of rally we've seen to continue, you're going to need to start seeing evidence. The weekly jobless claims number this morning is a start, but it's not enough. We could be bouncing around in the next few weeks.
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If you're out of the market you need to be in the market if you're saving for your long-term retirement or for other elements, ... People have been waiting on the sidelines, not committing as much new money. I don't think you should be investing next week's rent check, but your long-term investment is going to really grow in the market, and technology will lead that.
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If you look out into next week, you've got the weapons report from inspectors due and the current view is that people may be reluctant to put money to work ahead of that.
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I think we have continued volatility until we really see signs of growth in the economy slowing. When we see the economy slowing, I think that people will be more comfortable with the fact that maybe Greenspan is not going to have to continue to raise rates, then I think the market can move ahead.
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I think that overall we are in for a pretty good earnings quarter, and that may be a positive for stocks.
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I think we will have a positive year.
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I think what's going to be key going forward will be the tradeoff (in the economic news) between the statistics on employment and statistics on inflation.
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I think there's also bound to be a lot of hesitation until the election is over,