John Lonski
John Lonski
economy fed gain half hikes imply latest lie mark rate second speed temporary turning
This could mark a turning point. After all, the Fed was right, the latest slowdown was temporary and the economy is about to gain speed going into the second half of 2005, which would imply that more rate hikes lie ahead.
evidence sluggish
This could be interpreted as evidence of a still soft, sluggish economy.
brings gains
This brings the possibility of steeper-than-anticipated gains in profits.
above annual break climb continue convinced core fact leaves oil rate remaining verge
The fact that oil is remaining above $40 leaves me all the more convinced that core CPI will continue to climb higher, that we're on the verge of having the annual rate break above 2 percent.
attractive bonds extend opportunity sell
It makes sense to sell 30-year bonds now. This is an attractive opportunity to extend maturities.
corporate early encouraged financial growth improved measures perhaps relatively since
They're perhaps encouraged by the improved measures of corporate financial health. We've had relatively brisk growth by profitability ever since early 2002.
added committed fed global higher inflation investors order potential price pursuing reassure remains risks statement theme underlying
The underlying theme (in the Fed's statement) is the same but the Fed added the statement on the potential for higher inflation risks in order to reassure global investors that the Fed very much remains committed to pursuing price stability.
effect fact income increase left month personal troubling
The troubling fact is that even if we take out the effect of the hurricane, we're still left with a lackluster increase in personal income for the month of August.
economy
The economy is doing better, but where is profitability?
abroad events market worried
The market is really worried about events abroad and what may go on at home,
adds asia bottom contingent east economy further percent perhaps regarding weakness
I think the bottom right now is perhaps about 5-3/4 percent and that is contingent on further weakness in East Asia that adds to uncertainty regarding the U.S. economy in 1998.
eventually expect fed hit less move neutral note percent start yield
The Fed will eventually move to a neutral stance, and I don't think we're there yet. When we start to see payrolls of 200,000 a month, I expect the yield on the 10-year note will hit 4.5 percent and the Fed will become less patient.
bad continue credit economy heading higher market until yields
The credit market right now is bracing for some bad news. Yields should continue heading higher until the U.S. economy slackens appreciably.