Jon Brorson
Jon Brorson
commentary earnings federal gone great greenspan last looking market members people sitting year
People are looking for commentary from Greenspan and other members of the Federal Reserve, ... Earnings have been great over the last year and half, but the market hasn't gone anywhere, and it's because the Fed's sitting on the market.
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We've had quite a run over the last three weeks, and I think the equity market is going to have a little bit of profit-taking, especially in light of a no-news day.
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They managed to rally after being down most of Friday, so I think some of that momentum will continue today. Crude is off a little bit, bonds are up, so I think it's setting the stage for a pretty good day today on the back of a pretty good week last week.
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It seems the confluence of events, with Delphi, and the week you had last week, you start out here pretty tepid. I am not putting much stock in what the earnings are, but I think investors are waiting to hear what the companies would say about the outlook.
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I think earnings will be good this quarter. The pre-announcement season was very innocuous.
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People are real skittish after the sell-off on Friday. That was a pretty nasty bump.
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Our forecast was for earnings to come in around 13 percent year-over-year growth, and they're on track to do it. They are surprisingly better than expected, and outlooks have been good, generally speaking.
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I wouldn't be surprised if the market wakes up tomorrow and buys them (stocks) back again.
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Today, it can be summed up with GM, eBay and metals and mining stocks. It's all related to earnings, and it's a mixed bag.
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Gold is very sensitive to inflation. If you're worried about inflation, you tend to see gains in gold.
good
Caterpillar had good numbers. That's got to help.
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We got a lot of earnings and so far so good. The trend is going to be up, frankly, because the economy is chugging along, even with $74 dollar oil, amazingly.
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We've never seen a recession without the yield curve inverting, but the corollary is not true: Just because the yield curve inverts does not mean we're going to have a recession.
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Sitting on the market has been this 800-pound gorilla, King Kong of the Federal Reserve, and when you remove this gorilla ... I think stocks can work their way higher.