Joshua Feinman
Joshua Feinman
Joshua "Josh" Feinmanis an American film and television actor with appearances in Men of Honor, Transformers, and Mr. Woodcock...
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The personal income tax cut could be a boost of $50 billion to disposable income, and some of that could be felt when they actually change the tax withholding schedule, which could be in the spring or summer. Then there might be a little bit of rebate check, too. All of this might be a little more of short-term shot in the arm than the dividend tax cut.
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They are a bit more sanguine about inflation than the market has been, and they've been trying to tell people that. It doesn't mean they have their head stuck in the sand. With the last sentence of their statement, they leave themselves plenty of flexibility.
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It's a little bit analogous to the early 1990s, in that, when the Persian Gulf War ended then, the economy did not come storming back -- it took a while because it continued to work off its problems. Something similar could happen this time, though the economy is a little further along now in its process of unwinding than it was then.
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The labor market's starting to improve a bit -- it's not great, but it's getting better.
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Some of the other indicators are suggesting more strength than we see in payrolls. Whether that will be rectified with revisions, or simply with stronger numbers going forward, it's hard to say -- but I would anticipate that, at some point the payroll numbers, will be stronger.
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We need to keep in mind that this is the time of year when weekly fluctuations can be hard to seasonally adjust. We may need a few more weeks to sort it out. Overall, the readings we've been getting suggest the deterioration in the labor market is slowing down.
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We've been waiting for something like this for a long time. But we need to resist the temptation to put too much weight on any one month's report -- probably the best thing to do is to average out the past few months; that gives a clearer picture.
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Businesses were liquidating inventory last fall at a frenetic pace and adding to weakness in the economy's production. It looks like the rate of inventory liquidation is starting to slow, and a basis is forming from that reduction for a rise in the economy.
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To get faster job growth, we're going to need either faster aggregate demand, which seems hard to fathom, or we're going to need some diminution of the recent extra cyclical pop in productivity, ... When will that start? Anybody who says they know is lying.
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If the economy roars back, you can always take the cuts back. But suppose you're wrong on the other side, and the economy continues to languish? With the slack already in the markets, inflation is likely to move lower still.
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To keep these tax cuts permanent, even if it means somewhat faster GDP growth -- and that's debatable -- will mean the government gets a smaller tax take as a percentage of GDP. Then spending has to be a smaller share, too. We have to have some plan.
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You have to look at these numbers over a few months. Coming in, we had several months of very substantial gains, ... The basic picture is that business spending is bottoming and showing some signs of improvement, but it's not really robust.
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As the national economy gets better, California will get better, and some of its problems will be less acute.
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We've been talking for a long time about capital spending growth being a key component of the sustainability of this recovery. You have to be encouraged about what we've seen.