Ken Mayland
Ken Mayland
capacity good goods grinding increases industrial produce producing
We're grinding out some good increases here. We're producing more than we ever did and our capacity to produce industrial goods has increased.
economy economy-and-economics good holy major shows spite weathered
Holy Katrina! The economy weathered two major hurricanes and in spite of that showed accelerated growth. I think what this shows is that fundamentally the economy was and is in really good shape.
fed figures raising rates stay stop
Does the Fed stop raising rates after March? No. If these figures stay hot, they are going to keep raising.
capital consumer fourth government gulf increases inventory quarter rebuilding spending takes
Consumer spending in the fourth quarter is going to be low, and capital spending and inventory rebuilding is what takes up the slack. There are also increases in government purchases, a lot of that going for Gulf reconstruction.
begin bite capital consumers cumulative economy effect energy half high increases investment rate second willing
Consumers are still willing to spend, even with the high energy prices, and capital investment is booming. By the second half of the year, we'll see the cumulative effect of interest- rate increases begin to bite and the economy slow.
bit brighter context economy fears patch picture quarter scare second slightly soft
Considering everything, I think the picture is a little bit brighter for the second quarter and some of our fears on the economy in context of this soft patch scare are at least slightly alleviated.
difference family level sales
It's not just that the sales level was down but look at the difference between single-family and condos.
absolute december declined faster february future good implies report signs
The most encouraging signs in the December report was that inventories declined in an absolute sense and at a faster rate. That implies a need for future restocking and that should be a good sign for January, February and March.
auto department largely malls means reflecting research stores time
It's largely reflecting the time constraints on the part of shoppers. Doing all the test-driving and research at auto dealers means that they are not at malls and department stores and restaurants.
consumer decrease fed knock prices
It's going to take more that a one-month decrease in consumer prices to knock the Fed off it rate-rise bandwagon.
difficult initial month period volatile
As we get into the month of July, it is always a difficult and very volatile period for initial claims.
consumers decline indication inevitable month particular retail sales
It is inevitable that we will see a 1% or 1.5% decline in retail sales in an upcoming month as consumers become sated with new vehicles. ... This will not be an indication of any particular vulnerability.
auto bounce economy economy-and-economics expect fully points sales stronger strongly
I fully expect the economy to bounce back strongly in the first quarter. Auto sales will be stronger and inventories are still very lean, which points to a better first quarter.
announced anticipate core further incentive items liked love next softness
If you liked October, you are going to love November, ... because you can anticipate some further softness in these core items like new cars. G.M. has already announced the next incentive program.